Market Snapshot | Wheat posting followthrough gains

March 18, 2025

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | March 18, 2025
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are unchanged to 2 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are weaker as technical resistance limits buyer interest, though followthrough strength in wheat is curbing the downside.
  • South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian and Argentine corn production estimates at 123 MMT and 46 MMT, respectively.
  • Dryness in south-central Brazil continues to be a concern for southern safrinha corn in the states of Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais despite receiving some rain last week.
  • May corn futures are facing support at the 200-day moving average, of $4.57 3/4, while resistance remains at the 10- and 100-day moving averages of $4.63 1/2 and $4.66.

Soybeans are a penny to 2 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around $3.00 lower. Soyoil is around 60 points firmer.

  • Soybean futures are posting modest gains amid support from soyoil.
  • President Donald Trump stated that Chinese leader Xi Jinping would visit Washington in the “not too distant future” as trade tensions escalate between the two nations. Trump has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 20%, citing Beijing’s failure to curb the flow of illegal fentanyl.
  • Ongoing trade disputes between China and the U.S. have driven up Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans, raising export premiums at Brazilian ports. At the Port of Santos, April shipments now carry a 65-cent-per-bushel premium, rising to 75 cents for May.
  • Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates unchanged at 170 MMT and 48 MMT, respectively.
  • Indonesia will increase its palm oil export levy to between 4.5% and 10% of the crude palm oil reference price, up from 3% to 7.5%, to support a mandated rise in biodiesel use, a plantation fund official announced, according to Reuters.
  • May soybean futures continue to be limited by the 20- and 100-day moving averages, currently trading at $10.26 1/4 and $10.28 1/4, while support lies at the 10-day moving average of $10.14 1/2, then at $10.09 3/4.

SRW wheat is mostly 4 cents higher, while HRW Wheat is 8 to 10 cents higher. HRS futures are around 7 cents firmer.

  • Wheat futures are being led higher by HRW wheat amid fading conditions.
  • USDA rated the Kansas wheat crop as 48% “good” to “excellent,” down four points from the previous week. Ratings in Texas and Oklahoma were steady at 28% and 46%, respectively. In Colorado, ratings fell seven points to 60% “good” to “excellent.”
  • World Weather Inc. notes another round of strong wind, blowing dust and blizzard conditions will impact U.S. HRW wheat areas today into Wednesday.
  • May SRW futures continue to be limited by the 20-, 100- and 40-day moving a averages, currently trading at $5.67 3/4, $5.71 1/2 and $5.74 3/4, while support lies at the 10-day moving average of $5.58 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are modestly lower at midmorning.

  • Nearby live cattle are modestly weaker after notching a fresh for-the-move high in early trade, with support from firming cash and wholesale fundamentals.
  • Last week’s cash cattle average surged $5.02 from the previous week to $205.30. Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report will likely push trade late into the week.
  • Wholesale beef values rose on Monday, with Choice up $2.89 to $321.16, while Select rose $1.58 to $307.90. Movement was light, however, at 104 loads.
  • April live cattle have edged to the highest level since the end of January, with resistance serving at $205.78, while support lies at $203.72.

Hog futures are posting strong losses at midsession.

  • Nearby lean hogs are taking back a portion of Monday’s gains, with overhead resistance spurring corrective trade.
  • The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) announced that all 300+ U.S. pork harvesting and cold storage facilities have successfully renewed their registrations to export to China. This five-year renewal, achieved through negotiations by USDA and the U.S. Trade Representative, ensures continued market access for U.S. pork producers.
  • The CME lean hog index is down another 27 cents to $89.28 as of March 14.
  • The pork cutout value rose 27 cents on Monday to $97.65, with gains in primal loins and bellies offsetting losses in all other cuts. Movement totaled 295.9 loads.
  • April lean hogs are trading within Monday’s range as the nearly converged 40- and 100-day moving averages of $88.59 and $88.74 serve up resistance. Meanwhile support is layered at $87.28 and the 10- and 20-day moving averages.