Corn futures are 2 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures are lower as risk-off sentiments loom amid lingering trade uncertainties.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian corn crop estimate 1 MMT to 122 MMT. For corn, areas in need of rain to pollinate and fill properly represent about half of safrinha production—and the forecast for April through June calls for below-normal rainfall.
- By the end of the first week in April, Mato Grosso into southwestern Goias should be left with ample soil moisture to support safrinha corn deep into the month, according to World Weather Inc., though the soil is dry in most other safrinha corn areas that follow-up rain will be needed.
- May corn futures dropped below support at $4.60 1/2, with additional support at $4.56 1/2. The 20- and 100-day moving averages, trading at $4.65 and $4.67, stand as resistance.
Soybeans are 1 to 4 cents lower, while soymeal futures are mostly $2.00 lower. Soyoil is around 20 points higher.
- Soybean futures weaker along with pressure in the soymeal market.
- Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean production forecast 1 MMT to 169 MMT, noting dryness in far southern growing areas. Cordonnier maintained his Argentine production estimate at 48 MMT.
- President Donald Trump’s plan to levy fees on China-linked vessels will hurt domestic ship operators, seaports, exporters and jobs, industry executives said at U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) hearings on Monday. The Trump administration says the fees would curb China’s growing commercial and military dominance on the high seas and promote domestically built vessels.
- May soybean futures continue to face resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, currently trading at $10.09 1/4 and $10.14 3/4, while support lies around $10.00.
Winter wheat futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents lower, while spring wheat is mostly a penny lower.
- Wheat futures are extending Monday’s losses amid a lack of fundamental support and technical selling.
- State-level winter wheat condition ratings showed general improvement in the HRW crop over the past week. “Good” to “excellent” ratings improved one point in Kansas (49%) six points in Colorado (66%) and three points in Texas (31%). However, ratings dropped nine points in Oklahoma (37%) due to “extreme winds, lack of rainfall and wildfires” across much of the state.
- SovEcon trimmed its Russian wheat export forecast for 2024-25 to 40.7 MMT, down from its earlier estimate of 42.2 MMT. However, the consultancy increased its Russian wheat exports for 2025-26 to 39.1 MMT, up from 38.9 MMT.
- Concerns linger around Russia’s southern wheat crop as well as crops in eastern Ukraine, Kazakhstan and parts of Turkey. Some of these areas will get a little rain during the next two weeks, but a general soaking may be hard to come by, notes World Weather.
- May SRW futures are being capped by the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $5.56 1/2 and $5.57 1/2, while support lies at $5.41 1/4.
Live cattle and feeders are sharply lower at midmorning.
- Live cattle futures failed to find sustained buying early and have turned lower.
- Cash cattle prices surged $7.46 to a record $212.76 last week and wholesale beef prices posted strong on Monday, but live cattle futures closed lower and near session lows.
- Wholesale beef values rose on Monday, with Choice up $1.65 to $327.10, while Select rose $3.96 to $313.58. Movement was light, however, at only 79 loads.
- April live cattle dropped below the 10-day moving average of $205.16. Resistance is at $206.88.
Hog futures are sharply higher at midsession.
- Nearby lean hogs are notably firmer amid technical buying and a narrowing of the discount to the cash index.
- The CME lean hog index dropped 9 cents to $88.79 as of March 21.
- The pork cutout firmed 51 cents to $97.37 on Monday as all cuts except hams were higher.
- April lean hogs gapped open above the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $86.01 and $86.38, which are serving as support, while resistance stands at $87.31.