Market Snapshot | Sept. 24, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Pro Farmer’s Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are chopping around unchanged.

· Corn futures is being supported by soybeans for a second straight day, though the market has eased from earlier highs given weakness in wheat.

· Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his U.S. corn yield and production forecasts at 182.5 bu. per acre and 15.09 billion bu., respectively. He maintained a neutral to lower bias toward the crop.

· As of Sunday, USDA rated 65% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 12% “poor” to “very poor,” while harvest was 14% complete. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect, the corn crop dropped 2.2 points to 366.0. Click here for details.

· December corn futures are facing resistance at $4.18. Support lies at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages of $4.09 1/2, $4.06 1/4 and $4.02 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 6 to 8 cents higher, while soymeal futures are near unchanged. Soyoil is around 100 points higher.

· Soybeans have jumped to a near two-month intraday high amid technical buying.

· Cordonnier trimmed his U.S. soybean yield forecast 0.5 bu. to 52.0 bu. per acre, noting early soybeans will be better yielding that later-harvested fields due to late-summer dryness. He now estimates production at 4.48 billion bu. and maintains a neutral to lower bias toward the crop.

· USDA rated the soybean crop at 64% “good” to “excellent” and 11% “poor” to “very poor,” while harvest was 13% complete. On our CCI, the soybean rating slipped 0.7 point to 358.5.

· November soybeans have poked above resistance at $10.50, with additional resistance at $10.60 3/4. Initial support lies at $10.31.

Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents lower.

· Wheat futures are modestly favoring the downside in corrective trade, though technical support is limiting seller interest.

· China has set a 37 MMT maximum volume for wheat purchases at the minimum price in 2025 and 2026, state planner the National Development and Reform Commission said. It set the minimum purchase price for third-grade wheat produced in 2025 and 2026 at 119 yuan ($16.92) per 50 kilograms, equal to 2,380 yuan per metric ton. China buys wheat from farmers at the minimum price when the market price drops below that level to support food production.

· World Weather Inc. reports no relief is expected for Russia’s Southern Region, eastern Ukraine or parts of Russia’s Central Region for the next 10 days; rain is needed to support wheat establishment, and temperatures will continue warm in much of the western CIS.

· Conditions for sowing winter crops remained unsatisfactory in most Ukrainian regions as of Sept. 20, analyst APK-Inform quoted state weather forecasters as saying. Most Ukrainian regions have not had rain for many weeks and forecasters said that the upper soil layer is completely dry in most areas of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy and part of Chernihiv.

· December SRW wheat futures are facing resistance $5.89 1/4, while the 10-day moving average of $5.77 3/4 is serving as initial support.

Live cattle are posting slight to moderate gains, while feeders are sharply higher in most contracts.

· Live cattle are posting gains amid expectations of higher cash cattle prices again this week.

· The average cash cattle price rose $1.90 to $184.01 last week, which in combination with recent weakness in wholesale beef prices dropped packer margins below breakeven. Still, cash sources expect cash cattle prices to be steady/firmer again this week.

· Choice boxed beef prices surged $1.62 to $301.82, while Select fell 80 cents to $287.79, widening the Choice/Select spread to $14.02. Movement was light, however, at only 97 loads.

· October live cattle are trading above Monday’s high, with resistance at $183.83. Initial support lies at $182.50 and is backed by Monday’s low of $183.325.

Hog futures are mixed at midsession

· October hog futures have backed off earlier highs amid technical resistance, though strong support continues to limit the downside.

· The CME lean hog index is down 7 cents to $84.29 as of Sept. 20, marking the second straight daily decline after a brief uptick late last week.

· The pork cutout value slipped a penny on Monday to $94.14, with gains in primal bellies and ribs offsetting declines in all other cuts. Movement totaled 311.8 loads for the day.

· October lean hogs reached a three-week high before fading. Resistance is at $82.61 and $82.92 are curbing momentum. Initial support remains at $81.93.