Corn futures are 6 to 7 cents lower at midmorning.
· Corn futures are facing headwinds amid weakness in wheat futures and strength in the U.S. dollar index.
· USDA reported corn export sales of 847,400 MT for the week ended Sept. 12, which were within pre-report expectations ranging from 550,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. Exports totaled 572,900 MT during the week.
· Ukraine’s corn exportable surplus is likely to fall sharply in 2024-25 amid a plunge in production due to poor weather, agricultural producers’ union UAC said. UAC forecasts corn production at 21 MMT to 22 MMT, with 5 MMT of that total expected to be used domestically. That would leave 15 MMT to 17 MMT for export.
· The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its 2024-25 world corn crop outlook 2 MMT to 1.224 billion metric tons.
· December corn futures fell below the 10-day moving average of $4.08 1/4, with next support at the 20- and 40-day moving averages of $4.03 1/2 and $4.02 1/2. Initial resistance is at $4.12 3/4 and is backed by $4.14 3/4.
Soybeans are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower, while soymeal futures are narrowly mixed. Soyoil is around 50 points higher.
· Soybeans are modestly weaker despite strong weekly sales data.
· USDA reported soybean export sales of 1.75 MMT for the week ended Sept. 12, which surpassed analysts’ expectations of 500,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. Exports during the week totaled 446,200 MT.
· Grain ships loaded with soybeans and corn at Argentina’s major inland river ports around Rosario are hauling less cargo as water levels drop to near record lows due to a major drought upstream in Brazil. The Parana River, which carries almost 80% of Argentina’s grains and oilseeds for export, is at the second lowest level for this time of year since 1970, behind only a major decline in 2021, data from the Rosario Grain Exchange showed.
· November soybeans are being supported by the 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages, layered from $10.06 3/4 to $9.99 3/4, while initial resistance stands at $10.14 and $10.21 3/4.
Winter wheat futures are mostly 10 to 11 cents lower, with spring wheat down 7 to 8 cents.
· SRW wheat futures fell to the lowest level in over a week despite lingering global supply concerns.
· USDA reported wheat sales of 246,300 MT for the week ended Sept. 12, down 48% from the previous week and 46% from the four-week average. Net sales were below the pre-report range of expectations from 300,000 to 650,000 MT, though exports during the week reached a marketing-year high of 642,100 MT.
· Russia’s vast Krasnoyarsk region declared a state of emergency on Thursday due to heavy rains killing winter crops during sprouting time, bringing the total number of Siberian grain-producing regions under emergency conditions to four. Earlier, a state of emergency was announced in the Tomsk, Novosibirsk and Kemerovo regions. Together, the four regions accounted for about 5% of last year’s grain production.
· Brazil’s foreign trade chamber raised the quota for wheat imports through the end of the year to avoid potential shortages. The announcement didn’t specify the amount of the quota increase, though the Brazilian Wheat Industry Association (Abitrigo) proposed in June to increase it by 500,000 MT, which would bring the total quota to 1.25 MMT.
· IGC trimmed its 2024-25 world wheat crop forecast by 1 MMT to 798 MMT.
· December SRW wheat futures have extended below support at $5.71 1/2 and $5.67 1/2. Next support is at the 20- and 40-day moving averages of $5.62 1/4 and $5.59 1/2.
Live cattle and feeders are posting strong gains at midmorning.
· Live cattle are notably firmer despite fading wholesale fundamentals, while feeders are marking strong gains amid weakness in corn futures.
· Cash cattle has been too light to set a trend ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report.
· Wholesale beef values dropped on Wednesday, with Choice falling $2.53 to $301.38, while Select declined $2.47 to $289.75. However, movement increased to 176 loads.
· Net beef sales totaled 15,500 MT for 2024, up 36% from the previous week and 2% from the four-week average.
· October live cattle are challenging the 40-day moving average of $179.62, while Initial support remains at $177.66.
Hog futures are mixed at midsession
· October hog futures are slightly lower after traders actively narrowed the discount to the cash index earlier this week.
· The CME lean hog index held at $84.22 as of Sept. 17, pausing the string of seasonal price pressure.
· The pork cutout value slipped another 59 cents to $94.41 on Wednesday, led by losses in primal bellies and picnics.
· Net pork sales totaled 29,000 MT for 2024, up 22% from the previous week and 12% from the four-week average.
· October lean hogs are facing resistance at $82.48, while initial support lies at the 200-day moving average of $81.47.