Corn futures are chopping around unchanged at midmorning.
· Corn futures remain subdued in directionless trade.
· Good harvest weather continues in the U.S. Midwest, although there is likely to be some rain disruption in the central and western production areas in the coming week. The second week may be a little drier again depending on the tropics, notes World Weather Inc.
· Ethanol production averaged 1.049 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Sept. 13, down 31,000 bpd (2.9%) from the previous week but up 69,000 bpd (7.0%) from last year. Ethanol increased 71,000 barrels to 23.785 million barrels.
· Corn planting advanced 17 percentage points in Parana, Brazil, in the week to Sept. 16, below the 58% completion rate from a year earlier.
· December corn futures continue to face resistance at $4.14 1/4, which is backed by $4.15 3/4. Initial support is at $4.11 1/4.
Soybeans are mostly a nickel higher, while soymeal futures are marginally lower. Soyoil is around 30 points higher.
· Soybeans have backed off their earlier highs, though remain supported by technical strength.
· Soybean planting has started in limited areas of the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso but has not yet reached 1% of the projected area, the agricultural state agency IMEA said as of Sept. 16.
· No changes were noted in South America weather with west-central and northern Argentina along with center-west Brazil still looking drier than usual through the balance of September. Favorable rainfall is expected in southern Brazil and some southern and east-central parts of Argentina, according to World Weather.
· November soybeans failed to find sustained buying above Tuesday’s high, with the intra-session high of $10.22 initial resistance, while support lies at the 40-day moving average of $10.04 3/4.
Winter wheat futures are unchanged to 2 cents higher, while HRS are unchanged to a penny lower.
· Wheat futures are holding near unchanged amid a general muted tone across the marketplace.
· France’s ag ministry slashed the country’s 2024-25 soft wheat export forecast outside the EU by 3.5 MMT to 4 MMT, which would be 61% below last year due to the smallest crop since 1986. The export forecast within the bloc was cut 500,000 MT to 6 MMT, now expected to be 4.5% below 2023-24.
· Ukraine’s exportable grain surplus is seen at 43.2 MMT for 2024-25, Ukrainian state news agency Ukrinform quoted the ag minister as saying. That would be down 7.5 MMT (14.8%) from 2023-24.
· Black Sea consulting firm SovEcon cut its 2024 Russian grain production forecast by 4 MMT to 124.4 MMT. As we reported yesterday, SovEcon raised its Russian wheat crop forecast by 400,000 MT to 82.9 MMT. SovEcon expects Russia to export 48.1 MMT of wheat in 2024-25, down from its estimate of 52.4 MMT last year. The firm expects Moscow to impose wheat export quotas for the second half of the year, though it doesn’t know how restrictive it will be.
· India’s reductions on the amount of wheat traders and processors can hold are not enough to ease domestic wheat prices during festival season, and the government needs to release stocks to augment supplies, industry officials said. The market is awaiting the government to begin auctioning wheat to private firms as demand is set to rise next month due to festivals amid limited supplies.
· December SRW wheat futures are pivoting around the 10-day moving average of $5.77 1/2, while support lies at $5.69 3/4. Initial resistance stands at $5.82 3/4.
Live cattle and feeders are mostly weaker at midmorning.
· Live cattle are favoring the downside as technical pressure and slow-to-develop cash trade limit buying interest.
· Cash cattle trade will likely remain light ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report.
· Choice boxed beef prices slipped 66 cents on Tuesday to $303.91, while Select rose 8 cents to $292.22. Movement was strong at 156 loads for the day.
· October live cattle are trading within Tuesday’s upper range, limited by resistance at $179.225, while initial support lies at $178.34.
Hog futures are modestly firmer at midsession
· October hog futures are mildly firmer in light trade.
· The CME lean hog index is down 16 cents to $84.22.
· The pork cutout value rose 78 cents despite losses in all cuts aside from primal hams and bellies. Movement totaled 298.0 loads for the day.
· China imported 200,000 MT of pork in August, up sharply from only 90,000 MT in July but still 2.3% below year-ago. Through the first eight months of this year, China imported 1.5 MMT of pork, down 23.1% from the same period last year.
· October lean hogs are being supported by the 100-day moving average of $78.58, while initial resistance stands at $82.50.