Market Snapshot | Risk off tone across grains

March 14, 2025

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | March 14, 2025
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are 2 to 6 cents higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are lower despite evidence global end-users see the price break as a buying opportunity, as risk-off sentiments loom ahead of the weekend.
  • USDA reported daily corn sales of 218,604 MT to unknown destinations for 2024-25.
  • Overnight, South Korea purchased 139,000 MT of corn – 70,0000 MT expected to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa and 69,000 MT to be sourced from South America or South Africa.
  • May corn futures are finding support at the 200-day moving average of $4.55 1/2, while resistance stands at the 100-day moving average of $4.65 1/2.

Soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher. Soymeal futures are around $2.00 lower, while soyoil is around 20 points firmer.

  • Soybean futures have been choppy so far this morning amid conflicting spillover from the soy product markets.
  • Argentina’s oilseed workers lifted a strike Thursday afternoon that had paralyzed soy processing plants for a day, their union said, after the government called to restart talks with biodiesel firm Explora. A meeting between union officials and Explora is scheduled for next Monday afternoon.
  • Recent heavy rains across much of Argentina’s main crop areas has boosted production potential, though northern locations remain in need of moisture, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
  • USDA reported daily soyoil sales of 20,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2024-25.
  • May soybean futures are testing the 10-day moving average of $10.11 3/4, while support is at $10.00.

SRW contracts are favoring the downside, while HRW are mildly firmer and HRS is near unchanged.

  • SRW wheat futures are lower in consolidative trade as technical resistance casts a shadow over prices.
  • France’s ag ministry kept its soft wheat ratings at 74% good/excellent as of March 10, remaining the second lowest behind last year for the past five years. The country’s wheat crop has stabilized after conditions deteriorated from December to February, but some concerns remain.
  • Wildly swinging temperatures, dry air and periods of excessive wind will not bode well for some of the U.S. Central and Southern Plains wheat crop, according to World Weather Inc. Some of the freeze damaged crop will struggle without generalized rain, which is expected to be lacking during the next 10 days.
  • May SRW futures are trading inside Thursday’s range as the converging 100-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $5.72 1/4 to $5.74 1/4, serve up resistance, while the 10-day, currently trading at $5.53 1/2 continues to provide support.

Live cattle and feeders are mostly lower at midmorning.

  • Nearby live cattle are quiet as traders wait for cash cattle trade to develop in earnest.
  • Cash cattle negotiations remained at a standstill on Thursday, with feedlots seeking higher prices and packers not willing to bid up for supplies given poor margins. If the gridlock continues, this week’s negotiated cash cattle volume will be light.
  • Wholesale beef prices fell $1.41 to $319.69 while Select fell 6 cents to $307.47, though movement improved to 162 loads.
  • April live cattle are trading within Thursday’s lower range, with support layered between $200.90 and $200.76, while resistance stands at the previous session high of $203.625.

Hog futures are firmer at midsession.

  • Nearby lean hogs are higher as discounts to the cash index and wholesale strength are providing support.
  • The CME lean hog index is down 3 cents to $89.74 as of March 12.
  • The pork cutout rose $2.71 to $97.29 on Thursday, fueled by a $10.84 increase in volatile belly prices. While wholesale prices firmed, movement slowed to 214.6 loads.
  • April lean hogs found support on the dip below the 10-day moving average of $85.73. Resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $86.97.