Market Snapshot | October 2, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | October 2, 2024
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly 4 to 5 cents higher at midmorning.

· Corn futures are higher for the fourth straight session, with technical strength and wheat gains stirring buyer interest.

· The White House is urging striking dockworkers and business owners to return to negotiations to resolve the East Coast Gulf port strike. Despite increasing pressure from business groups, President Joe Biden, who identifies as pro-union, has refused to intervene using the Taft-Hartley Act, emphasizing his support for collective bargaining.

· The Port of Long Beach, the second-busiest maritime trade hub in the U.S., is prepared to handle more cargo diverted from the East and Gulf Coast ports, where dockworkers are on strike for the second day. Currently operating at 70% capacity, the port is in a strong position to manage any surge in shipments, according to CEO Mario Cordero.

· Ethanol production averaged 1.015 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Sept. 27, up 21,000 bpd (2.1%) from the previous week and 6,000 bpd (0.6%) above last year. Ethanol stocks dropped 65,000 barrels to 23.459 million barrels.

· December corn futures have pushed above Tuesday’s high. Bulls’ upside target is a 50% retracement of the price drop from the May high to the August low around $4.41, while initial support lies at the 100-day moving average near $4.29.

Soybeans are mostly 5 to 7 cents lower, while soymeal futures are $7.00 to $10.00 lower. Soyoil is 50 to 65 points higher.

· Soybeans are being pressured by strong profit-taking in meal futures, while soyoil gains and strength in grains is curbing the downside.

· Brazil’s 2024-25 soybean planting reached 2.4%, down from last year’s pace of 4.1% for the same period, according to Conab.

· Brazil’s center-south and center-west crop areas will receive needed moisture Wednesday into Friday of next week, with the rains boosting improving early soybean planting conditions, though drier weather will return the following weekend, according to World Weather Inc.

· November soybeans are facing support at the 10-day moving average of $10.43 1/4, while initial resistance stands at $10.66 3/4.

Winter wheat futures are 14 to 20 cents higher while HRS futures are 10 to 13 cents firmer.

· HRW wheat futures are leading the surge higher as geopolitical tensions and looming supply concerns continue to catch traders’ attention.

· Russia’s state weather forecast agency said conditions for winter crops in some key producing regions were “worse than usual” in October due to a lack of precipitation, specifically noting the Central, Southern, North-Caucasus and parts of the Volga regions. “A precipitation deficit will persist, and the conditions for the emergence and growth of winter crops in most areas will be worse than usual,” the agency said.

· Russia effectively banned the transit and import of Kazakh grain and some other agricultural products on phytosanitary grounds, which some exporters viewed as retaliation for Kazakhstan’s earlier ban on Russian grain supplies.

· Russia’s exporter union said export volumes for the first quarter of 2024-25 were excessive and called for limits to be imposed through a mechanism.

· Dry weather and frosts in parts of Australia have damaged crops and will likely reduce wheat production by well over 1 MMT from earlier estimates, analysts said, as key global producers of the grain continue to battle harsh growing conditions.

· December SRW wheat futures have moved above the 100-day moving average of $6.06 1/4 for the first time since mid-June. Resistance at the 200-day moving average of $6.16 1/4 is being challenged. Initial support lies at $5.92 3/4.

Live cattle and feeders are sharply higher at midmorning.

· Nearby live cattle are higher amid technical buying as wholesale strength underpins prices.

· It appears wholesale beef prices have stabilized, with signs pointing to a short-term bottom. Choice beef rose $2.09 to $300.17 on Tuesday, while Select rose 77 cents to $285.30. Despite the strength, packer margins remain in the red.

· There were doubts cash cattle prices would extend the three-week string of gains, though this morning’s price action could swing negotiations in feedlots’ favor.

· December live cattle are heavily short-term overbought, which could trigger corrective selling. Initial support lies at $183.56.

Hog futures are moderately higher at midsession.

· October hog futures are higher amid firming cash and wholesale fundamentals. The contract has erased the discount to the cash index.

· The CME lean hog index is up 12 cents to $84.13 as of Sept. 30, marking a gain in two of the past four days.

· The pork cutout value rose 47 cents on Tuesday to $96.31, while movement improved to 315.5 loads.

· October lean hogs gapped higher at the open and are pivoting around resistance at $84.025, while additional resistance stands at $84.55. Initial support is at today’s low of $83.725.