Market Snapshot | October 16, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | October 16, 2024
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midmorning.

· Corn futures are posting modest corrective gains following recent selling.

· USDA reported daily corn sales of 1.623 MMT to Mexico, with 1.044 MT for 2024-25 and 579,120 MT for 2025-26. Sales of 332,000 MT were also reported to unknown destinations for 2024-25.

· In its weekly Crop Progress Report Tuesday afternoon, USDA reported the corn crop as 64% “good” to “excellent,” while harvest was estimated to be 47% complete as of Oct. 13.

· Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports jumped to 2.71 MMT in Oct. 1-15 from 1.99 MMT during the first half of last month, mostly due to higher corn shipments, Ukrainian traders union UGA said.

· December corn futures are hovering within Tuesday’s lower range. Support is at $4.00 while the 40-day moving average of $4.09 3/4 serves as initial resistance.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower, while soymeal futures are as much as $2.00 higher. Soyoil is modestly lower.

· Soybeans have weakened from earlier highs as technical pressure continues to cast a shadow over the market.

· USDA reported daily soybean sales of 175,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2024-25.

· USDA estimated soybean harvest was 67% complete as of Oct. 13.

· A recent economic study commissioned by the American Soybean Association (ASA) and the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) highlights the potential negative consequences of a renewed U.S./China trade war on American farmers and rural communities. The study, conducted by the World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services, reveals that American-imposed tariffs could significantly harm U.S. producers while benefiting competitors like Brazil and Argentina.

· November soybean futures continue to face resistance at $10.00, which is backed by the 40- and 10-day moving averages of $10.13 3/4 and $10.14 3/4. Initial support lies at $9.82 1/2.

Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents firmer.

· SRW wheat futures are notching gains amid corrective buying despite a stronger U.S. dollar.

· USDA reported the winter wheat crop was 64% planted as of Oct. 13, slightly behind the five-year average of 66%.

· Russia’s Volga River Basin and the USDA-defined “Southern Region” will receive much-needed precipitation during the coming week that will likely promote aggressive late-season planting of winter wheat. World Weather Inc. notes that much more moisture will be needed to fix the moisture deficits and planted acreage may remain lower than usual. World Weather also notes portions of eastern Ukraine may remain too dry to support favorable late-season planting.

· Russia’s Grain Exporters Union began publishing indicative export prices for Russian wheat on Tuesday, following discussions on exports during a meeting between agriculture ministry officials and leading exporters last week. The union said the indicative export price for wheat with 12.5% protein content on a free-on-board (FOB) basis from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk was $240 per metric ton for October, $245 for November and $250 for December.

· France’s ag ministry kept its 2024-25 wheat export forecast outside of the EU at 4 MMT, 61% below last year. It cut the forecast within the bloc by 100,000 MT to 6 MMT, 5.8% below year-ago.

· December SRW futures bounced from support at the 40-day moving average of $5.75 and are testing resistance at $5.84 3/4. Additional resistance is at the 20-, 10- and 100-day moving averages layered from $5.88 3/4 to $5.93 1/2.

Live cattle are mixed while feeders are weaker at midmorning

· Live cattle futures are choppy as traders wait on direction from the cash market.

· Wholesale beef prices jumped $3.51 for Choice to $316.83 and $2.99 for Select to $292.09 on Tuesday, while movement totaled 136 loads.

· Given the strength in wholesale prices, especially for Choice beef, packer cutting margins have improved and are in the black despite the five-week string of higher cash cattle prices.

· December live cattle are trading mostly between the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $187.23 and $185.81, with additional resistance/support at $187.70 and $185.45.

Hog futures are posting moderate to strong gains at midsession.

· Hog futures are posting solid corrective gains following losses earlier this week.

· The CME lean hog index is down 8 cents to $84.08, still above the late-September low.

· The pork cutout fell 57 cents to $94.40 on Tuesday as all cuts except ribs and bellies weakened. But the drop in price spurred a strong pickup in retailer demand as movement surged to 416.4 loads.

· December lean hogs have moved back above the 10-day moving average of $76.52, with resistance now at $77.14. The 20-day moving average of $75.52 remains initial support.