Market Snapshot | October 10, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | October 10, 2024
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly a penny lower at midmorning.

· Corn futures are facing technical pressure despite strength in wheat and crude oil.

· USDA reported net corn sales of 1.222 MMT of corn for the week ended Oct. 3, which were within the pre-report range of expectations from 900,000 MT to 1.7 MMT. Exports totaled 1.059 MMT during the week.

· Strategie Grains raised its forecast for EU corn production by 200,000 MT to 58.1 MMT, though that would still be down 4.9 MMT (7.8%) from last year.

· Turkey will allow imports of 1 MMT of corn at a tariff rate of 5% until the end of the year, the trade ministry said. The import quota will secure supply/demand balance for corn since domestic production is insufficient to meet consumption. The current 130% tariff will be imposed on corn imports exceeding 1 MMT.

· December corn futures are facing stiff resistance at the 10- and 100-day moving averages, which are each trading around $4.24 1/2. The 20-day moving average of $4.17 3/4 is initial support.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower, while soymeal futures are mostly $3.00 to $4.00 lower. Soyoil is around 20 points higher.

· Soybeans are being pressured by soymeal, which is lower for the seventh straight session.

· USDA reported soybean sales of 1.264 MMT during the week ended Oct. 3, which were primarily to China. Net sales were within the pre-report range of expectations from 800,000 MT to 1.7 MMT, while exports totaled 1.71 MMT during the week.

· Western, central and northern Brazil will see regular rain through the next 10 days to two weeks, leaving nearly all of the region with increases in soil moisture and notable improvements in conditions for planting and crop establishment. Southern Paraguay and southern Brazil have favorable soil moisture and will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks.

· November soybean futures are trading within Wednesday’ range, with initial support at the 40-day moving average of $10.11 1/4, while resistance remains at $10.27 3/4.

Wheat futures are 1 to 4 cents higher.

· Wheat futures are higher, though strength is being mitigated by weakness in corn and soybeans.

· USDA reported wheat export sales of 433,600 MT during the week ended Oct. 3, down 2% from the previous week but up 31% from the four-week average and within expectations of 250,000 to 550,000 MT. Exports totaled 359,700 MT for the week.

· Russia’s Agriculture Ministry has called the country’s major grain exporters to a meeting on Friday, three sources close to the matter told Reuters. Presumably, the meeting will be about wheat export levels for 2024-25. The ministry is expected to release its revised estimate for the 2024 grain harvest today. The estimate will determine how much wheat can be exported in 2024-25.

· Strategie Grains kept its EU wheat production forecast at a 12-year low of 114.4 MMT, down 12.7 MMT (10%) from last year.

· The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered its 2024-25 Argentine wheat production forecast, citing a lack of rains in key farming areas. It now sees wheat production at 19.5 MMT, down from a previous estimate of 20.5 MMT.

· December SRW futures are finding support at the 100-day moving average of $5.99 1/2, while resistance is at $6.09 3/4, which is backed by the 200-day moving average of $6.14 1/2 and the recent high of $6.17 1/4.

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Live cattle and feeders are narrowly mixed in choppy midmorning trade.

· Nearby live cattle are chopping around unchanged as traders wait for cash trade to develop.

· Cash cattle negotiations have been slow to commence this week. Packers are hoping to buy cattle at lower prices after four weeks of strength despite negative margins. Feedlots are in no hurry to move cattle at lower prices.

· Wholesales beef prices firmed on Wednesday with Choice rising $1.34 to $308.18, while Select increased a modest 2 cents to $288.63, widening the Choice/Select spread to $19.55. Movement was strong at 189 loads for the day.

· USDA reported net beef sales of 13,700 MT for 2024, down 39% from the previous week and 8% from the four-week average.

· December live cattle continue to find support at the 10-day moving average of $186.49, while resistance stands at $188.02.

Hog futures are mostly firmer at midsession.

· Hog futures are firmer in narrow trade, with strong export sales curbing seller interest.

· The CME lean hog index is up 25 cents to $84.47 as of Oct. 8. The index is in the middle of the recent choppy range, 46 cents above the Sept. 27 low and 43 cents below the Oct. 2 high.

· The pork cutout value firmed 74 cents on Wednesday, with $7-plus gains in bellies negating declines in primal hams, loins, butts and picnics. Movement totaled 308.4 loads for the day.

· USDA reported net pork sales of 50,600 MT for 2024, up 17% from the previous week and 56% from the four-week average.

· October lean hogs are trading narrowly within Wednesday’s range, with resistance at the previous session high of $84.175, while support remains at the 10-day moving average of $83.68.