Corn futures are 2 to 3 cents higher at midmorning.
· Corn futures are extending higher for the sixth straight session, despite general weakness in the ag complex and unfavorable outside markets.
· USDA reported daily corn sales of 200,480 MT for 2024-25.
· USDA’s corn crop estimate isn’t likely to change much in the Crop Production Report at 11:00 a.m. CT. Analysts expect USDA to estimate corn production at 15.189 billion bu. (15.203 billion bu. in October). Analysts expect ending stocks of 1.946 billion bu. for corn (1.999 billion bu. in October).
· China’s ag ministry raised its 2023-24 (Oct.-Sept.) import figures for corn. Corn imports jumped 25.1% to 23.41 MMT, up 410,000 MT from last month’s estimate.
· December corn futures are facing resistance at $4.32 1/4, while initial support lies at $4.26, and is backed by support at $4.23 1/2, as well as the 10-, 40-, 20- and 100-day moving averages.
Soybeans are mostly 6 to 7 cents lower, while soymeal futures are around $2.00 to $3.00 lower. Soyoil is marginally lower.
· Soybeans are correctively lower with technical resistance curbing buyer interest.
· USDA reported daily soybean sales of 107,000 MT to China and 132,000 MT to unknown destinations both for 2024-25.
· Modest reductions are expected in USDA’s November Crop Production Report, with analysts expecting 4.557 billion bu. (4.582 billion bu. in October). Analysts expect ending stocks of 532 million bu. (550 million bu. in October.
· China’s ag ministry raised its 2023-24 (Oct.-Sept.) import figures for soybeans, up 7.4% from the previous year to 104.74 MMT, 2.45 MMT higher than the October estimate.
· January soybean futures continue to be limited by the 40-day moving average of $10.24 1/2, while support lies first at $10.08 1/2, then around $10.00, with backing from the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading around $9.99.
Wheat futures are chopping around unchanged.
· Wheat futures are mixed in persisting consolidative trade.
· Analysts are expecting USDA to peg wheat ending stocks at 813 million bu., up slightly from October’s estimate of 812 million bu. USDA’s global wheat production forecasts might draw the most attention given declining private crop forecasts for several countries.
· Delayed planting because of heavy rain in western Europe has raised concerns with a potential repeat of the past growing season, which resulted in one of the worst harvests in decades. In France, farmers had planted just 62% of intended wheat acres, behind 65% at this point last year and the five-year average of 77%. Germany, Poland and the UK have also dealt with wet fall conditions, though not to the degree of France.
· Russia’s tax on wheat exports rose to 2,569.2 rubles ($26.30) per metric ton for the week of Nov. 13-19 up from 2,517.0 rubles ($25.77) the previous week. The export tax has surged 93.4% in the last five weeks and is 183% above the mid-September level. Russia’s ag ministry has reportedly asked exporters to not sell wheat below a minimum price of $250 per metric ton.
· December SRW futures are consolidating around the 100- and 20-day moving averages, each currently trading around $5.74, while support lies at the 10-day moving average of $5.70, and is backed by further support at $5.64 1/2.
Live cattle and feeders are sharply lower at midsession.
· Live cattle futures are sharply lower amid wholesale beef weakness.
· Wholesale beef prices plunged on Thursday, with Choice falling $6.13 to $309.46 and Select down $3.48 to $279.72. Movement totaled 179 loads for the day.
· Cash cattle remained limited on Thursday as packers are hesitant to bid higher amid ample supplies and eroding margins. However, feedlots will likely remain reluctant sellers at lower prices.
· December live cattle have edged to the lowest intraday level since Sept. 24, with support at the 100-day moving average of $183.63, while resistance stands at the 200-day moving average of $184.56.
Hog futures are under pressure at midmorning.
· December hog futures are sharply lower despite persisting cash strength.
· The CME lean hog index is up another 37 cents to $90.61 as of Nov. 6, the 15th straight daily increase in the contra-seasonal rally.
· The pork cutout value dropped $4.19 to $97.97 on Thursday, pressured by a $17.05 plunge in primal bellies, though sharp losses were also recorded in hams, ribs and picnics.
· December lean hogs gapped lower, leaving an island top on the daily chart. Support is now in the $79.00 area.