Market Snapshot | November 6, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | November 6, 2024
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents higher at midmorning.

· Corn futures have rebounded from earlier weakness to notch gains for the fourth straight session, despite strong gains in the U.S. dollar.

· Traders are expecting USDA to trim its corn production and ending stocks forecasts in Friday’s reports. The surge in global end-user demand is expected to trigger a higher export forecast.

· Ethanol production averaged 1.105 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Nov. 1, up 23,000 bpd (2.1%) from the previous week and 63,000 bpd (6.0%) above last year. Ethanol stocks rose 249,000 barrels to 22.020 million barrels.

· A few rounds of precip during the next two weeks throughout the Midwest will increase soil moisture. However, many areas have experienced persisting dry conditions, which will allow the soil to absorb the moisture and fieldwork to advance.

· December corn futures have extended to a near two-week high, with resistance at $4.22 1/4 being tested. Support is at $4.15 3/4, which is backed by the 10-, 40-, 20- and 100-day moving averages.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 5 cents lower, while soymeal futures are around $3.00 lower. Soyoil is 90 to 120 points higher.

· Soybeans have worked well off overnight lows but remain under pressure.

· Donald Trump has said “tariffs” is his favorite word in the dictionary and has consistently vowed to use them against China. He has also said he would put 10% to 20% tariffs on imports from other countries, but that is seen as leverage in discussions for a key goal of his new term: reciprocal trade agreements.

· Argentina will trend drier in the second week of the forecast, but another rain event is expected this weekend into early next week, while Brazil will experience timely rainfall through the next two weeks, supporting most crops and farming activity, notes World Weather Inc.

· January soybean futures have rebounded notably from the overnight low, though resistance remains at $10.06 1/2. Meanwhile, support begins at the 10-day moving average of $9.94 1/2 and is backed by support at $9.91 1/2 and $9.86 1/2, along with the overnight low at $9.82.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 1 to 3 cents firmer, while HRW and HRS wheat are unchanged to a penny lower.

· Wheat futures have rebounded sharply from overnight price pressure, despite hefty gains in the U.S. dollar index.

· World Weather reports U.S. hard red winter wheat areas will be impacted by a new storm system today through Saturday.

· Southern Russia, Ukraine and western Kazakhstan will see temps hold just above the dormancy threshold and waves of moisture will not have much impact on the long-term development potential for winter wheat.

· Russia’s curbs on wheat exports have inadvertently helped Ukraine secure lucrative sales to Egypt this week while also inflating prices for the world’s top importer. Russia was kept out of the sale due to unofficial policies to prevent a price spike at home as the country seeks to combat inflation, partially fueled by military spending.

· December SRW futures are challenging resistance at the 20-day moving average of $5.77 1/4, while initial support remains at $5.67 and is backed by $5.61 1/2.

Live cattle are moderately firmer while feeders are marking strong gains at midsession.

· Live cattle futures are correctively higher following a six-day string of losses.

· Choice boxed beef prices firmed 30 cents to $317.21 on Tuesday, while Select fell $1.92 to $285.24. Movement totaled 142 loads, signaling there’s still strong retailer demand.

· Packer margins have tightened but are still mildly in the black. After experiencing negative margins for much of this year, packers will do all they can to keep margins propped up by attempting to purchase cattle at lower prices this week.

· December live cattle continue to face resistance at $186.225, which is backed by the 10- and 20-day moving averages, currently trading around $187.00 and $187.16. Initial support lies at $185.05.

Hog futures are mixed at midmorning.

· December hog futures are marking modest gains, though technical resistance is limiting the upside.

· The CME lean hog index is up another 41 cents to $89.79 as of Nov. 4, the 13th straight daily gain and the highest level since Aug. 16.

· The pork cutout value fell $2.58 to $101.43 on Tuesday

· December lean hogs bounced after filling the Oct. 29 gap at $80.825. Resistance is at the 10-day moving average of $81.85.