Corn futures are mostly unchanged to a penny weaker at midmorning.
· Corn futures are lower amid general weakness across the grain and soy markets.
· Ethanol production during the week ended Nov. 15 averaged 1.110 million barrels per day (bpd), down 3,000 bpd (0.3%) from the previous week’s record but 87,000 bpd (8.5%) above year-ago. Ethanol stocks rose 524,000 barrels to 22.563 million barrels.
· Central Argentina will be dry biased through the weekend and then get timely relief via rain and thunderstorms late Sunday into Wednesday. Sao Paulo and northern Parana, Brazil will experience lighter-than-usual precipitation and some net drying over the next 10 days. The region will need to be closely monitored for possible dryness in late November or early December, but soil moisture is abundant today.
· December corn futures are pivoting around the 10-day moving average of $4.26 3/4
Soybeans are around 11 to 12 cents lower, while soymeal futures are chopping around unchanged. Soyoil is around 150 points lower.
· Soybean futures are facing pressure from sharp losses in soyoil.
· USDA reported daily soybean sales of 202,000 MT to China and 226,200 MT to unknown destinations for 2024-25.
· The U.S. could impose nearly 40% tariffs on imports from China early next year, a Reuters poll of economists showed, potentially slicing growth in the world’s second-biggest economy by up to 1 percentage point. The poll, the first on China’s economy by Reuters since Donald Trump’s election victory on Nov. 5, predicts the president-elect will resist starting off with blanket 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, as he has threatened.
· January soybean futures have extended below support at $9.91 1/2, though next support at $9.84 1/2. The 20-day moving average of $10.01 1/2 is initial resistance.
Winter wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher, while HRS futures are narrowly mixed.
· Wheat futures have worked off their earlier lows but are being limited by U.S. dollar strength.
· Russian farmers say they will sow less wheat after heavy losses this year, switching to more profitable crops such as peas, lentils or sunflowers, Reuters reported. Winter wheat plantings likely declined by 10% to the lowest since 2019, according to Rusagrotrans, Russia’s primary grain rail carrier.
· Drier weather is expected in U.S. HRW wheat areas over the coming week, which will be welcome after abundant recent precip.
· December SRW futures are facing resistance at the 10-day moving average of $5.51 1/2 while initial support remains at $5.43 3/4.
Live cattle and feeders choppy with a downside bias at midsession.
· Nearby live cattle are pivoting around unchanged as traders wait on direction from the cash market.
· Cash cattle trade has been slow to start the week with very little trade taking place.
· Choice boxed beef prices firmed $1.51 to $308.79 on Tuesday, marking the second straight strong daily gain. Select dropped $3.54 to $271.91. That increased the Choice/Select spread to a wide $36.88.
· December live cattle are hovering just above the 40-day moving average of $186.25 while initial resistance stands at $187.51.
Hog futures are firmer at midmorning.
· December hog futures are firmer despite fading cash and wholesale fundamentals, as traders narrow the discount to the cash index.
· The CME lean hog index is down another 40 cents to $88.09 as of Nov. 18, the seventh decline in the last eight days during which the index has dropped $2.52.
· The pork cutout value dropped $2.39 to $94.68 yesterday, driven by losses in picnics and bellies. Movement improved to 393.37 loads.
· December lean hogs are trading within Tuesday’s range, limited by resistance at $80.37 while support lies at the 40-day moving average of $78.93.