Corn futures are fractionally to a penny lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures are modestly weaker in consolidative trade amid technical resistance and spillover weakness from wheat futures.
- USDA reported corn export inspections of 1.46 MMT (57.6 million bu.) during the week ended March 20, down 229,205 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of expectations from 1.0 MMT to 1.7 MMT.
- AgRural kept its safrinha corn crop forecast unchanged at 87.9 MMT but cited concerns relative to irregular rainfall. AgRural’s total corn production forecast was raised 600,000 MT to 121.8 MMT.
- Overnight, Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the U.S., Argentina, Brazil or South Africa.
- May corn continues to be limited by the 20-day moving average, currently trading around $4.67, while support starts at $4.60 1/2.
Soybeans are 2 to 3 cents lower. Soymeal futures are around $2.00 lower. Soyoil is modestly weaker.
- Soybean futures are being led lower by selling in soymeal and general negative tone across the ag complex.
- AgRural cut its soybean production forecast by 2.3 MMT to 165.9 MMT as hot, dry conditions “continued to wreak havoc” on the crop since mid-February in far southern Brazil.
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang warned the country is prepared for “shocks that exceed expectations,” as anticipation builds over renewed U.S. tariffs under President Donald Trump. Speaking at the China Development Forum in Beijing, Li emphasized the need for global cooperation and open markets amid rising economic uncertainty.
- USDA reported soybean export inspections of 822,214 MT (30.2 million bu.) for the week ended March 20, up 164,378 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of pre-report expectations from 300,000 to 900,000 MT.
- May soybean futures continue to face resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $10.10 1/2 and $10.17 1/4, while initial support lies at $10.03 3/4.
Winter wheat futures are mostly 10 to 12 cents lower, with spring wheat 6 to 7 cents lower.
- Winter wheat futures notably weaker with U.S. dollar strength negating stronger-than-expected export inspections.
- USDA reported wheat export inspections of 484,701 MT (17.8 million bu.) for the week ended March 20, down 10,452 MT from the previous week but above the pre-report expectations of 200,000 to 400,000 MT.
- Russia and the U.S. are discussing a potential revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a 2022 agreement aimed at ensuring safe merchant shipping and grain exports during the war in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed the issue was on the agenda during U.S./Russia talks in Saudi Arabia, noting past commitments to Russia were left unfulfilled under the original deal.
- Russia’s IKAR consultancy has raised its baseline 2025 wheat crop forecast to 82.5 MMT from 81.0 MMT amid improved conditions in central and southern production areas of the country. IKAR noted there are still crop concerns in the Volga region.
- May SRW futures are finding support at $5.43 1/2, while resistance stands at $5.63.
Live cattle are sharply higher at midmorning.
- Live cattle are being supported by Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report, which underscored bullish supply fundamentals.
- USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report showed the March 1 feedlot inventory down 2.1% from year-ago at 11.577 million head, as placements plunged 17.8% from year-ago during February and marketings dropped 8.9%.
- Choice boxed beef fell $2.61 on Friday to $325.45, while Select rose 26 cents to $309.62. Movement totaled 124 loads.
- April live cattle are facing resistance at $209.89, while initial support lies at Friday’s low of $206.48.
Hog futures are moderately to sharply lower at midsession.
- Nearby lean hogs are weaker in sideways trade as technical resistance and a weakening cash index hover over prices.
- The CME lean hog index continues to hover just below the $90.00 level, with the latest quote down 32 cents to $88.88 as of March 20.
- The pork cutout firmed $1.00 to $96.86 on Friday, holding in the recent mid- to upper-$90.00 trading range.
- April lean hogs are testing support at $85.36 with resistance at the 10-day moving average of $86.36. Additional support/resistance is at $84.59 and $86.91.