Market Snapshot | June 28, 2024

Market Snapshot | June 28, 2024

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Pro Farmer’s Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly 4 cents higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are mildly firmer on mild corrective buying ahead of USDA’s Acreage and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports.
  • Because of the timing of NASS’ survey work, the acreage data won’t account for recent flooding in areas of the northwestern Corn Belt. While the acreage estimates will draw a lot of attention, quarterly stocks data has a history of producing major surprises, especially for corn, leading to big post-report price moves.
  • Analysts expect corn acres to range from 89.0 million to 91.2 million acres, with an average estimate of 90.353 million acres. If realized, it would be up slightly from March but still notably below year-ago.
  • World Weather Inc. reports the Midwest and Northern Plains will receive timely rainfall over the next two weeks, supporting summer crop development, though some areas of the upper Midwest will remain wetter than usual. Early indications suggest a drier pattern will evolve July 6-12.
  • December corn continues to find support at $4.31 3/4, while initial resistance stands at $4.36 3/4. Additional support/resistance is at $4.29 3/4 and $4.41 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly 7 to 9 cents higher. Soymeal futures are $1.00 to $2.00 higher. Soyoil is around 20 points higher.

  • Soybeans are posting corrective gains, along with soymeal futures.
  • Argentine oilseed crushers workers union SOEA started striking Thursday in protest of Javier Milei’s proposed economic and labor reform bill that was being voted on and eventually passed Argentina’s Congress. It is uncertain how long the strike will last. The CIARA-CEC chamber of oilseed producers and grain exporters questioned the legality of what it called an “unplanned” strike.
  • USDA is expected to report soybean acres between 85.5 million and 87.5 million acres in today’s Acreage Report, with analysts expecting acres to total 86.753 million on average. June 1 stocks are anticipated to be 962 million bu., down from 1.845 billion bu. in March, but up from 796 million bu. a year ago. The range of estimates is from 861 million bu. to 1.015 billion bu.
  • Soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the U.S. rose to 1.070 million lbs. in April, up from 1.026 million lbs. in March. Soybean oil remains the largest U.S. biodiesel feedstock.
  • November soybeans continue to face resistance at $11.15 1/2, while initial support lies at $11.00. Additional resistance/support is at the 10-day moving average of $11.21 1/4 and $10.95 1/2.

Wheat futures are choppy in midmorning trade.

  • Wheat futures are directionless as a firmer U.S. dollar, technical resistance and positioning ahead of USDA’s acreage stocks data limit trading.
  • Analysts expect all-wheat acres of 47.657 million in USDA’s Acreage Report, with the pre-report range is from 47.1 million to 49.0 million acres. June 1 stocks are expected to be 684 million bu. on average, with a range of estimates from 644 million bu. to 705 million bu.
  • With just two days left in the 2023-24 marketing year, Ukraine’s grain exports reached 50.6 MMT as of June 28, according to ag ministry data, up from around 49 MMT last year.
  • France’s ag ministry rated the country’s wheat crop as 60% good or excellent as of June 24, down two percentage points from the previous week. That remains the lowest rating for the date since 2020.
  • Weather in the Southern Plains will continue to be favorable for crop maturation and harvesting, according to World Weather, while some increase in rain in the eastern Midwest may slow progress for a little while. U.S. spring wheat areas in the east are a little wet and some natural rain would be welcome in the Pacific Northwest.
  • December SRW futures are facing resistance at the 10-day moving average of $6.07 3/4, while initial support lies at $5.95 1/2.

Live cattle are slightly weaker, while feeder are sharply lower.

  • August live cattle are mildly weaker despite expectations of stronger cash trade again this week.
  • Cash cattle trade remained limited Thursday, though packer interest built, suggesting higher cash prices could be seen again this week. So far, limited cash trade has occurred at steady/firmer levels within a wide price range.
  • Choice boxed beef prices firmed 48 cents on Thursday to $3223.33, while Select fell 16 cents to $302.70 widening the Choice/Select spread to $20.63. Movement totaled 117 loads for the day.
  • Iowa’s Department of Agriculture said two more dairy farms in Sioux County have confirmed cases of the H5N1 virus. To date, Iowa has confirmed 13 cases of the virus in dairy herds.
  • August live cattle are trading within Thursday’s upper range, limited by resistance at the previous session high of $187.425, while initial support is at $185.425.

Hogs are mixed at midsession.

  • Hog futures continue to be pressured by weakening cash and wholesale fundamentals as well as technical resistance, though they have worked off their lows in choppy trade.
  • USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the June 1 U.S. hog herd at 74.486 million head, up 935,000 head (1.3%) from year-ago and 347,000 head than the average pre-report estimate implied. The breeding herd declined 198,000 head (3.2%) to 6.008 million head, but the market hog inventory increased 1.134 million head (1.7%) to 68.479 million head.
  • The CME lean hog index fell 17 cents to $89.75 as of June 26, the lowest level since April 9.
  • The pork cutout value fell 62 cents to $94.90, led by a near $9-drop in primal ribs. Movement totaled 239.6 loads.
  • July lean hogs are trading within Thursday’s range, limited by resistance at $90.39, while initial support remains at $88.69 and is backed by this week’s low of $88.65.