Corn futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents higher at midmorning.
· Corn futures are posting mild corrective gains, despite continued selling in the soy complex.
· Remnants of Hurricane Beryl will reshape near-term rainfall biases across the Midwest, according to World Weather Inc. The forecaster says, “The storm will first bring some welcome moisture to the eastern Midwest where rainfall has been a little lackluster at times in recent weeks.
· USDA rated 68% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 9% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop rose 3.0 points to 375.3.
· Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his U.S. corn production forecast at 14.77 billion bu., noting generally benign weather conditions.
· Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop forecast 2 MMT to 116 MMT, given higher-than-expected yields in top producer Mato Grosso. He lowered his Argentine corn crop forecast 1 MMT to 46 MMT as yields are declining as harvest progresses. Cordonnier lowered his Paraguay corn crop estimate 500,000 MT to 4.5 MMT.
· December corn is trading within Monday’s lower range, with support at yesterday’s low of $4.05 3/4, followed by the psychological $4.00 mark. Initial resistance stands at $4.12 1/2.
Soybeans are mostly 6 to 12 cents lower. Soymeal futures are around $1.50 to $3.50 lower. Soyoil is mostly 160-plus points lower.
· November soybeans have marked a fresh near-term low as profit-taking in soyoil casts a shadow over futures.
· USDA rated the soybean crop as 68% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop improved 2.4 points to 365.4.
· Cordonnier left his U.S. soybean estimate unchanged at 4.39 billion bu. but noted a little more heat would be welcome in the northwestern Corn Belt.
· November soybeans have extended to a three-year low, with next support at $10.87 1/2, which is backed by $10.75 1/4. Initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $11.09 1/4.
Winter wheat futures are mostly 7 to 8 cents higher, while HRS futures are 4 to 5 cents firmer.
· Wheat futures are modestly firmer amid corrective buying following Monday’s heavy selling.
· USDA rated 75% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 4% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, spring wheat improved 1.2 points to 383.5.
· Winter wheat harvest was 63% complete as of July 7, according to USDA, ahead of the five-year average of 52%.
· Crop moisture and heat stress are expected from southeastern Europe through Ukraine and Russia’s Southern Region to the Ural Mountains region during the coming 10 days, according to World Weather Inc.
· French soft wheat production is expected to decline 15.4% to 29.7 MMT, the lowest level since 2020, according to the first estimate from the country’s ag ministry. That would be 14.2% below the five-year average. The wheat crop forecast was based on an expected yield of 6.99 tons per hectare (down from 7.38 tons per hectare last year) and harvested area of 4.24 million hectares, down from 4.75 million in 2023.
· December SRW wheat poked above the 10-day moving average of $5.98 1/2 and $6.00 level. Stiff resistance is at the 20-day moving average of $6.17 1/4. Initial support lies at Monday’s low of $5.90.
Live cattle and feeders are posting slight to moderate gains, with nearby contracts leading the way.
· August live cattle are recouping a portion of Monday’s sharp losses as lingering cash strength supports futures.
· Cash cattle posted a fourth consecutive record high last week. But traders are anticipating a decline in the cash market in the coming weeks.
· Choice boxed beef prices rose a modest 4 cents on Monday to $330.47, while Select slid 34 cents to $304.72. Movement was nominal at 89 loads.
· The H5N1 virus infecting U.S. dairy cows is not easily transmitted through the air among ferrets, which are considered to be the best small mammal for studying influenza virus infection and transmission, as study by researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison showed.
· August live cattle are trading within Monday’s lower range, limited by the 10-day moving average, currently trading at $185.47. Initial support lies at Monday’s close of $184.35.
Hogs are mixed at midsession.
· August hog futures are modestly firmer amid wholesale strength.
· The CME lean hog index is down 44 cents to $88.76 as of July 5, marking a new low on the decline from the seasonal high and the lowest level since April 9.
· The pork cutout firmed $1.08 on Monday to $95.99, despite losses in primal butts and picnics. That was the second consecutive daily gain following last week’s drop to the lowest level since late March. Movement totaled 267.2 loads.
· July lean hogs are hovering above the 10-day moving average of $89.54.