Corn futures are mostly 3 cents higher at midmorning.
· Corn futures are posting modest corrective gains following Monday’s heavy selling.
· USDA rated 68% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 9% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sunday. On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 1.9 points to 373.4.
· Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his corn yield estimate 1 bu. to 180 bu. per acre given beneficial weather as corn started pollination. That increased his corn production forecast to 14.85 billion bu.
· Ukraine’s summer crops may decline 20% to 30% in central, southern and eastern regions due to extreme heat, state weather forecasters said. The weather center said 30% to 50% of the overall area planted to summer crops could be affected by drought.
· December corn futures are trading within the short-term consolidation range, with support at Monday’s low of $4.03 1/4, while initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $4.12 1/2 and then last Friday’s high at $4.16 1/2.
Soybeans are mostly 5 to 6 cents higher. Soymeal futures are around $1.00 to $2.00 higher. Soyoil is about 50 to 60 points higher.
· November soybeans have bounced off earlier lows on strength from bargain buying following recent pressure.
· USDA rated the soybean crop as 68% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop slid 0.5 point to 364.9.
· Brazil’s Abiove increased its 2024 soybean production forecast by 700,000 MT to 153.2 MMT, based on higher yields. The export outlook was unchanged at 97.8 MMT.
· November soybeans dropped to a fresh for-the-move low at $10.37 1/4 before bouncing, while initial resistance stands at $10.56 1/2.
Winter wheat futures are mostly a nickel to 9 cents lower, while HRS futures are trading 3 to 4 cents lower.
· Wheat futures are favoring the downside for the third straight session despite persisting global production unknowns.
· USDA rated 77% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 3% “poor” to “very poor” On the CCI, spring wheat improved 0.6 point to 384.1.
· Winter wheat harvest was estimated to be 71% complete as of Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 62%.
· Ukraine’s major Agricultural producers group, Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC) reported the country’s combined grain and oilseed output could fall to 77 MMT, down from around 82 MMT for 2023. Despite the production decline, a UAC official said the 2024-25 exportable surplus would be around 60 MMT, almost the same amount the country exported in 2023-24.
· December SRW wheat is facing initial support at $5.50, while initial resistance stands at $5.62 1/2.
Live cattle are slightly to moderately higher, while feeders are moderately to sharply higher.
· August live cattle continue to trade sideways in consolidative trade amid technical support and limited seller interest given the contract’s big discount to cash trade.
· Cash cattle prices averaged $194.24 last week, down $2.85 from the previous week’s all-time high, though not as weak as early trade indicated. Cash sources expect prices to decline again this week as packers purchased relatively large amount of cattle since the beginning of June.
· Choice boxed beef prices fell 57 cents on Monday to $321.49, while Select rose $2.51 to $304.82, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $16.67. Movement was light at 89 loads.
· August live cattle are hovering above the 40-day moving average of $181.75, while initial resistance is at $183.05.
Hog futures are posting strong gains at midmorning.
· August hog futures are posting strong gains with technical buying overpowering seasonally weakening cash fundamentals.
· The CME lean hog index rose 4 cents to $88.42 as of July 12.
· The pork cutout value slipped 55 cents on Monday to $98.29 as losses in butts and hams more than offset gains in other cuts. Movement totaled 261.1 loads for the day.
· August lean hogs are facing resistance around $90.50, which is backed by the 40-day moving average of $91.53, while initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $88.50.