Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midmorning.
· Corn futures are lower along with wheat and soybeans ahead of USDA’s July crop reports.
· USDA’s updated balance sheets at 11:00 a.m. CT will reflect adjustments to old-crop demand forecasts based on June 1 stocks. There will be major changes on the new-crop balance sheets to reflect planted acreage figures. Analysts expect 2023-24 corn ending stocks of 2.049 billion bu. (2.022 billion bu. in June) and 2024-25 ending stocks of 2.312 billion bu. (2.102 billion bu. in June).
· U.S. weather will trend cooler during the first half of next week in the Midwest, with scattered thunderstorms also expected. Generally favorable conditions are expected for most major corn areas during the next two weeks.
· December corn is testing support at Wednesday’s low of $4.04, which is backed by the psychological $4.00 level. The 10-day moving average, currently trading around $4.14 1/2, serves as initial resistance.
Soybeans are mostly 5 to 14 cents lower. Soymeal futures are $2.00 lower to $6.00 lower. Soyoil is around 30 points lower.
· November soybeans are lower for the fifth straight session as meal weakness is pressuring the complex.
· Analysts expect USDA to report 2023-25 soybean ending stocks at 355 million bu. (350 million bu. in June) and 2024-25 ending stocks of 449 million bu. (455 million bu. in June).
· China imported 11.11 MMT of soybeans during June, up 890,000 MT (8.7%) from May and 840,000 MT (8.2%) more than last year. Through the first half of 2024, China imported 48.48 MMT of soybeans, down 2.2% from the same period last year. Soybean arrivals in China are expected to be record-large between 12 MMT and 13 MMT this month.
· November soybeans have forged a fresh near-term low. Support at $10.60 3/4 is being tested and is backed by $10.53 3/4. Initial resistance remains at $10.75 1/4.
Wheat futures are 12 to 16 cents lower at midsession.
· Wheat futures have given up Thursday’s gains, despite continued U.S. dollar weakness and some global production cocerns.
· USDA will release its first all-wheat crop estimate today, which will include the initial survey-based forecasts for other spring wheat and durum.
· On average, analysts expect USDA to report 2024-25 ending stocks at 788 million bu. (758 million bu. in June). Ending stocks for 2023-24 were set at 702 million bu. by the June Grain Stocks Report (up from 688 million bu. in the June WASDE Report).
· China’s ag ministry reported the country’s wheat production increased 2.7% this year to 138.22 MMT as planted area rose 0.1% and yields increased 2.6%.
· France’s ag ministry rated the country’s wheat crop as 57% good or excellent as of July 8, down one point from the previous week and the lowest since 2020. Harvest was 4% complete, down from 26% on that date last year and the five-year average of 19%.
· Drought and dryness remain a concern for Ukraine and areas to the east and north reaching to western Kazakhstan and the southern Ural Mountains region. World Weather Inc. reports rain is needed in this region, which includes Russia’s Southern Region, as soil moisture is short to very short.
· December SRW wheat has dropped below $5.83 3/4, with next support at the June 26 low of $5.79. The 10-day moving average of $5.96 3/4 remains initial resistance.
Live cattle are posting modest gains in most contracts, while feeders are moderately to sharply higher.
· August live cattle are modestly firmer as technical support is supporting futures.
· Cash cattle trade rebounded from earlier in the week, with this week’s five-area average now totaling $192.88, up from $188.36 the previous day. However, that’s still down notably from last week’s record.
· Wholesale beef fell Thursday, with Choice dropping $2.40 to $321.65, while Select declined 56 cents to $303.38, further narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $18.27. Movement totaled 142 loads for the day.
· August live cattle have tested the 40-day moving average of $181.49, with additional support at this week’s low of $180.35. Meanwhile, initial resistance stands at $182.95.
Hog futures are slightly to moderately higher at midmorning.
· August hog futures are notably stronger amid followthrough corrective buying.
· The pork cutout value firmed $1.81 on Thursday to $96.23, led by a $12.56 gain in primal ribs, though all cuts posted gains aside from loins. Movement totaled 329.1 loads.
· China imported 515,000 MT of meat during June, down 42,000 MT (7.5%) from May and 150,000 MT (22.6%) from year-ago. Through the first half of this year, China imported 3.3 MMT of meat, down 13.4% from the same period last year.
· August lean hogs pushed above resistance at the 10-day moving averages of $88.35. Initial support lies at the session low of $87.225.