Market Snapshot | July 11, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Pro Farmer’s Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are a nickel to 6 cents higher at midmorning.

· Corn futures are higher amid corrective buying in tandem with wheat and soybean futures and a sharply lower U.S. dollar.

· USDA reported corn export sales of 538,300 MT for the week ended July 4, up 51% from the previous week, but down 13% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of expectations from 300,000 to 850,000. New-crop sales for the week totaled 116,500 MT, while exports were 879,100 MT.

· Conab increased its Brazilian production estimate to 115.859 MMT, up from 114.144 MMT in June.

· December corn faces resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.18, while initial support lies at $4.06.

Soybeans are mostly 4 to 6 cents higher. Soymeal futures are $1.50 lower to $1.00 higher. Soyoil is around 120 points higher.

· November soybeans are modestly firmer after heavy selling over the past three sessions.

· USDA reported soybean export sales of 208,000 MT, down 9% from the previous week and 40% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low-end of the pre-report range expectations from 200,000 to 600,000 MT. New-crop sales were reported at 191,300 MT, while exports totaled 267,300 MT.

· Conab modestly lowered its Brazilian soybean production estimate to 147.336 MMT, down from 147.353 MMT in June.

· Vegoil prices in China have been dropping in the past days after a national food security scandal involving Sinograin shocked the nation and hurt consumer sentiment toward the sector, but market participants expect limited impact on soybean crushers going forward.

· November soybeans are trading within Wednesday’s lower range after marking an intra-day low at $10.65 1/2. Initial resistance stands at $10.79 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 16 to 22 cents higher, while spring wheat is 15 to 16 cents higher.

· Wheat futures are sharply higher despite a drop in weekly export sales, with strength stemming from a weaker dollar.

· USDA reported wheat export sales of 240,400 MT during the week ended July 4, missing pre-report range expectations from 300,000 to 700,000 MT. Exports during the week totaled 294,600 MT.

· Strategie Grains increased its forecast for EU soft wheat production by 500,000 MT to 122.3 MMT, though that would still be down 4.2 MMT (3.3%) from last year and the lowest in four years.

· Ukraine seized a foreign cargo ship in the Black Sea off its Odesa region and detained the captain on suspicion of helping Mosco export Ukrainian grain from Russian-occupied Crimea, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said. The vessel, which wasn’t identified, was travelling under the flag of a central African country.

· December SRW wheat is testing resistance at the 10-day moving average of $6.01 1/2, which is backed by the 20-day moving average at $6.10 1/2. Initial support lies at $5.78 1/4.

Live cattle are moderately higher, while feeders are posting strong gains.

· August live cattle gapped higher at the open but continue to trade narrowly as technical resistance curbs buying.

· Wholesale beef prices declined for a second straight day on Wednesday, as Choice fell $1.61 to $324.05, while Select dropped 37 cents to $303.94. However, movement over the past two days has totaled 286 loads, indicating there’s still strong retailer demand under the market. Seasonally, beef prices weaken during the summer, though there are indications retailers plan to keep actively featuring beef.

· USDA reported net beef sales of 8,300 MT for 2024, a marketing-year low, down 46% from the previous week and 43% from the four-week average.

· August live cattle are facing resistance at the 20-day moving average of $183.45, while initial support lies at the 40-day moving average of $181.11.

Deferred lean hogs are moderately to sharply higher, while July hogs are posting modest gains.

· August hog futures are recouping a large portion of Wednesday’s losses, though solid technical resistance lies overhead.

· The CME lean hog index is up 24 cents to $88.67 as of July 9. July lean hog futures, which expire July 15 and are settled against the index July 17, are trading at dime discount to the index.

· The pork cutout value rose 57 cents on Tuesday to $94.32 despite a $5-drop in primal ribs. Movement totaled 295.5 loads.

· USDA reported net pork sales of 26,500 MT for 2024, down 55% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average.

· August lean hogs extended to a fresh contract low before rebounding. Initial resistance stands at Wednesday’s gap from $87.875 to $88.30.

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