Corn futures are a penny to 4 cents lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures are facing pressure as President Trump reiterated his stance on tariffs for Canada and Mexico, which has sparked demand concerns and also bolstered the U.S. dollar.
- Trump announced his administration will impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico starting Feb. 1, citing concerns over trade deficits, illegal immigration and the fentanyl crisis. He suggested the tariff rate could rise further.
- Brazil will be wet this weekend into early next week in center-west and center-south crop areas though less frequent and less significant rain is expected. That could lead to improved safrinha corn planting.
- March corn futures gapped lower in overnight trade, with support now at the 20-day moving average of $4.76 1/4, while resistance stands at $4.92 1/2.
Soybeans are around 2 to 3 cents higher, while soymeal futures are about $3.50 lower. Soyoil is around 140 points higher.
- Soybean futures have rebounded from earlier lows amid support from rallying soyoil futures.
- Hot and stressful conditions for crops will occur in western Argentina Sunday before excessive heat and serious crop stress in northern Argentina Monday into Next Friday, according to World Weather Inc.
- World Weather notes a trend of somewhat drier weather should coincide well with the dates in which most of the early soybean crop in central Brazil should be matured.
- Commodity markets are pricing in elevated odds Trump’s sanctions against Canadian imports will include raw materials like oil, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which warned of higher gasoline prices in the Midwest if penalties cover crude flows.
- March soybeans found support at the 20-day moving average of $10.34 1/4, while resistance stands at $10.48 3/4.
Wheat futures are 3 to 7 cents lower.
- Wheat futures have bounced off of earlier lows but continue to face pressure from a firmer dollar.
- India will likely experience below-normal rainfall in February, and it could have a “significant adverse impact” on the wheat crop, which is at the flowering and filling stage, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director-General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said.
- World Weather notes cold weather may return to a part of the U.S. Central Plains next week, although temps should not be cold enough to induce any harm and there may be some snow that accompanies the cold.
- March SRW futures bounced from support at the 10-day moving average of $5.51 3/4, while resistance stands at Thursday’s high of $5.69 3/4.
Live cattle are modestly firmer, while feeders are sharply higher at midsession.
- Cattle futures are rebounding after sharp losses the two previous sessions corrected oversold conditions.
- Wholesale beef values edged lower on Thursday with Choice falling $3.06 to $327.48, while Select slid $4.77 to $315.90. Movement totaled 138 loads.
- USDA’s Cattle Inventory Report this afternoon is expected to show the total U.S. cattle herd at 86.373 million head as of Jan. 1, down 0.9% from year-ago. The beef cow herd is expected to decline another 0.7%. The 2024 calf crop is expected to shrink another 1.5% to 33.089 million head, which would be the smallest since 1940. Analysts expect beef replacement heifers to rise 1.3%, a sign herd rebuilding has begun.
- April live cattle are pivoting around the 10-day moving average of $201.73, with support at the 20-day moving average of $199.75. Initial resistance stands at $202.54 and $204.26.
Hog futures are posting slight to sharp losses at midmorning.
- Lean hog futures are facing corrective selling despite a firming cash market as traders narrow premiums to the cash index.
- The CME lean hog index is up another 47 cents to $83.06 as of Jan. 29, extending the three-week runup from the seasonal low.
- The pork cutout value fell 38 cents to $92.93 amid declines in primal bellies, hams and ribs. Movement totaled 213.0 loads.
- April lean hogs gapped lower at the open. Near-term support lies at the 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages, currently trading at $89.20, $88.86 and $88.59. Resistance is at $90.97.