Corn futures are around a penny lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures are modestly weaker in narrow, corrective trade.
- USDA reported corn export sales of 1.661 MMT for the week ended Jan. 16, up 62% from the previous week and 68% from the four-week average. Sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range of expectations from 700,000 MT to 1.7 MMT. Exports at 1.517 MMT were a marketing-year high.
- Rainfall in Mato Grosso, Brazil, is expected to increase during the second half of next week and prevail through the first full week of February, slowing crop maturation and harvest progress. Parana, Sao Paulo, southern Mato Grosso do Sul and neighboring areas of interior southern Brazil will also see frequent rainfall, states World Weather Inc.
- March corn futures are trading within Thursday’s range, with support at the 10-day moving average of $4.81 1/4. Resistance stands at the previous session high of $4.94 1/2 and is backed by $4.96.
Soybeans are mostly 3 to 4 cents lower, while soymeal futures are around $7.00 lower. Soyoil is mostly around 30 points higher.
- Soybean futures are weaker amid corrective selling and pressure from losses in meal futures.
- USDA reported soybean exports sales of 1.492 MMT for the week ended Jan. 16, up notably from a week ago and the four-week average. Sales were near the upper end of pre-report expectations from 600,000 MT to 1.8 MMT. Exports totaled 1.035 MMT for the week.
- As we previously reported, from Jan. 27 through June, Argentina’s taxes on soybean exports will decline to 26% from 33%, while rates on soy products will fall to 24.5% from 31%. For both wheat and corn, export taxes will be reduced to 9.5% from 12%. An Argentine ag source told us, “Even with the export tax cut, our soybeans are still too expensive to actively compete in the export market.”
- March soybeans bounced from a test of support at the 10-day moving average of $10.47 1/4, while resistance stands at $10.63 and is backed by the 200-day moving average of $10.75 1/4.
Wheat futures are 5 to 9 cents lower.
- SRW wheat futures are lower, despite a fading U.S. dollar as export sales data was disappointing.
- USDA reported wheat export sales of 164,800 MT during the week ended Jan. 16, down 68% from the previous week and 52% from the four-week average. Net sales were short of the pre-report expectations from 200,000 to 600,000 MT. Exports for the week totaled 201,300 MT.
- Warmer weather is now expected across HRW wheat areas of the U.S., with market focus possibly turning toward precip in areas where it has been dry for a while, according to World Weather.
- March SRW futures have tested support at the 40-, 10- and 20-day moving averages, with additional support at $5.42 1/2. Initial resistance stands at $5.53 1/2.
Live cattle and feeders are posting moderate- to strong gains at midsession.
- Nearby live cattle have surged on support from a strong technical posture and bullish fundamentals.
- Cash cattle trade has been relatively light so far this week, but what activity took place suggests prices will rise again. Deals in the Southern Plains were mostly steady to $1.00 higher, with some light trade in the northern market as much as $2.00 higher.
- Analysts expect USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon to show the large feedlot (1,000-plus head) inventory down 0.3% from year-ago at 11.894 million head as of Jan. 1. The report is expected to show a 1.1% increase in the number of cattle moved into feedlots last month, despite a ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports that went into effect in late November. Marketings are anticipated to be up 1.2% from December 2023.
- USDA will detail frozen meat stocks at the end of December. The five-year average is an 18.3-million-lb. increase in beef stocks.
- USDA reported net beef sales of 15,100 MT for 2025, while exports totaled 11,800 MT.
- February live cattle have surged to an all-time high, with resistance now serving at today’s high of $203.975, while support lies at $200.69.
Hog futures are modestly higher at midmorning.
- Nearby hog futures are firmer in narrow trade with support from strengthening cash fundamentals.
- The CME lean hog index is up another 21 cents to $81.93 as of Jan. 22, the ninth straight daily gain during which prices have risen $1.50.
- The pork cutout value rose $1.60 to $91.77 on Thursday, amid gains in all cuts aside from primal picnics. Movement totaled 293.5 loads.
- USDA will detail frozen meat stocks at the end of December. The five-year average is a 2.5-million-lb. rise in pork stocks during the month.
- USDA reported net pork sales of 37,700 MT for 2025, while exports totaled 22,800 MT.
- February lean hogs are trading near Thursday’s high, with resistance starting at $82.50, which is backed by $82.69. Support lies at the 100-day moving average of $82.03.