Corn futures are mostly a penny to 3 cents higher at midmorning.
- Corn futures are firmer amid lingering South American weather concerns and a plunging U.S. dollar.
- Brazil’s safrinha corn planting, which follows soybean harvest, was only 0.3% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. That was the slowest start since 2021.
- South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine corn crop estimate by 1 MMT to 48 MMT, noting a lower bias going forward amid hot, dry conditions. Cordonnier kept his Brazilian corn crop forecast unchanged at 125 MMT.
- Rains moved across Argentina as expected over the weekend, and scattered rains are expected again during the next two weeks. However, rainfall will be lighter than normal with a warm bias toward temps. The Rosario Grain Exchange noted rains have not alleviated concerns that ongoing drought could further hurt crop yields.
- USDA reported weekly corn export inspections of 1.541 MMT (60.7 million bu.), up 99,171 MT from the previous week and above pre-report expectations from 1.0 MMT to 1.35 MMT.
- March corn futures pushed above the mid-June high of $4.88. The intraday high of $4.90 1/2 is initial resistance, while initial support is at $4.81.
Soybeans are mostly 19 to 20 cents higher, while soymeal futures are nearly $10.00 higher. Soyoil is around 20 points lower.
- Soybean futures are extending Friday’s gains amid general risk-on trade as the marketplace is more at ease regarding a possible trade war.
- President Donald Trump postponed imposing new tariffs and directed federal agencies to review trade relationships with China, Canada, and Mexico. Trade officials will assess trade deficits, unfair practices and currency issues, easing concerns about abrupt trade actions.
- Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 1.7% as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, the slowest pace since 2020-21. Harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top producing state, was the slowest in AgRural’s historical series that began in 2010-11.
- Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean crop estimate by 1 MMT to 51 MMT but left his Brazilian estimate unchanged at 170 MMT.
- USDA reported weekly soybean export inspections of 973,145 MT (35.8 million bu.), down from 1.357 MMT the previous week and below expectations from 1.25 MMT to 1.6 MMT.
- March soybeans are facing resistance at $10.62 1/4, which is backed by last week’s high of $10.64, while support lies at $10.42 1/4, then at the 10-day moving average of $10.28 1/4.
Winter wheat futures are 15 to 18 cents higher, while HRS futures are mostly 13 to 14 cents higher.
- Wheat futures are posting strong gains amid concerns of winterkill in U.S. winter wheat regions as bitter cold stings the U.S. and sharp losses in the U.S. dollar index.
- World Weather Inc. reports some winter crop damage may have occurred in HRW wheat areas in the U.S. because of the cold in a snow-free environment the past two mornings, although an assessment of damage will not be possible until spring when greening usually begins.
- Over the weekend, Egypt purchased a “significant” amount of wheat from Russia, though no specific tonnage was announced.
- USDA reported weekly export inspections of 261,786 MT (9.6 million bu.), down from 299,191 MT the previous week and below expectations of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
- March SRW futures surged above the 10- and 20-day moving averages, which have converged around $5.41. Resistance at $5.55 is being tested.
Live cattle and feeders are mixed at midsession.
- Cattle futures opened firmer on support from last week’s cash cattle trade, though profit-taking has trimmed gains.
- Cash cattle averaged a record $203.67 last week, up $1.09 from the previous week. Cash cattle prices have risen for nine straight weeks, surging $18.88 during that span.
- Wholesale beef prices slipped on Monday, with Choice falling 53 cents to $333.16 and Select down 39 cents to $319.44. Movement totaled 100 loads for the day.
- February live cattle are pivoting around the 10-day moving average of $197.05, with resistance at $197.79 and support at $195.79.
Hog futures are mostly lower at midmorning.
- February lean hog futures are clinging to mild gains at midmorning, while deferred contracts have turned lower after a firmer start.
- After pressure in early January, the CME lean hog index and pork cutout showed recent signs of stabilizing.
- The CME lean hog index is up another 12 cents to $81.40 as of Jan. 17.
- China imported 200,000 MT of pork in December, up 20,000 MT (11.1%) from November and 7.7% above year-ago. In 2024, China imported 2.28 MMT of pork, down 15.7% from the previous year.
- February lean hogs are pivoting around the 10- and 100-day moving averages of $81.83 and $81.88. The 20-day moving average at $82.32 is resistance, while initial support lies at $81.42.