Note: MLK Jr. Day schedule... Grain and livestock markets will observe normal trading hours today. All markets and government offices are closed Monday, Jan. 20, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. There will be no Pro Farmer updates Monday. Grain markets resume trading with the overnight session at 7:00 p.m. CT on Monday. Livestock markets reopen at 8:30 a.m. CT. on Tuesday, Jan. 21.
Corn futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents higher at midmorning.
- Corn futures have posted fresh near-term highs, with strong technical support and strengthening supply/demand fundamentals spurring buyer interest.
- The La Niña bias that fueled dry weather in Argentina since last fall remain in place, but World Weather Inc. says conditions have changed enough to allow weakness in the upper air wind flow to support near-term opportunities for rain. But the resulting rainfall may still be erratic and lighter than usual. While conditions are no longer supportive of absolute dryness and hot temperatures, they may return later in February.
- South Korea may consider a plan to increase U.S. ag imports to help reduce the trade imbalance between the two countries should it emerge as a point of tension with the incoming Trump administration, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
- March corn futures have taken out last week’s high, marking a for-the-move high, with resistance now at $4.83 1/2. Initial support lies at $4.72 1/4.
Soybeans are mostly 14 to 17 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around $4.00 firmer. Soyoil is around 30 points higher.
- Soybean futures are rebounding from Thursday’s sharp losses in tandem with corn futures.
- Chinese soy processors have turned to competitively priced Brazilian cargoes instead of U.S. soybeans amid fears Washington will impose tariffs after President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20. Chinese processors have secured nearly all of their cargoes from Brazil for first quarter shipment, three trade sources told Reuters.
- Brazilian soybean output is expected to reach 172.4 MMT in 2024-25, according to Agroconsult, up from the previous forecast of 172.2 MMT. The consultancy forecasts Brazil soybean exports at 105.1 MMT in 2025, up from the previous estimate of 103.4 MMT.
- Argentina will receive relief from heat and dryness over the next 10 days, but rainfall may still be erratic and lighter than usual. All of Brazil will receive rains during the next two weeks. Rains will benefit dry southern areas but slow soybean harvesting in central Brazil, which could lead to some crop quality concerns.
- March soybeans are trading within Thursday’s lower range, with support at the 100- and 10-day moving averages of $10.21 1/4 and $10.20 1/2, while resistance stands at the previous session high of $10.42 3/4.
Wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midmorning.
- SRW wheat futures are modestly firmer ahead of frigid temps in the U.S. over the next few days.
- U.S. winter wheat will be exposed to some harsh temps this weekend into early next week and some crops will not be adequately protected from the cold, according to World Weather Inc. Portions of Nebraska and Kansas will have little to no snow on the ground and the lowest temps will fall to the negative single digits.
- China’s biggest state-run crop trader has been forced to resell at least two cargoes of imported wheat, as Beijing extends curbs on foreign purchases to bolster the domestic industry, Bloomberg reported. Cofco Corp. this month resold the shipments of Australian wheat due to arrive in China during January to April to countries including Indonesia and Thailand, according to people familiar with the sales.
- Overnight, Thailand purchased 195,000 MT of feed wheat – 67,000 MT to be sourced from the U.S. or Australia and 128,000 MT to be sourced from Australia.
- March SRW futures are finding support at $5.33 3/4, while resistance stands at $5.44 and backed by the 40-day moving average of $5.47 3/4.
Live cattle are mixed while feeders are moderately weaker at midsession.
- Nearby live cattle are choppy in narrow trade, though a firm technical posture and bullish fundamentals are underpinning futures.
- Packers have paid mostly steady prices for cash cattle this week and it appears weaker values are likely near-term. After weeks of chasing supplies, packers appear to have near-term needs relatively well covered.
- Choice boxed fell 73 cents on Thursday to $333.41, while Select rose $1.34 to $319.38. Movement totaled 142 loads for the day.
- U.S. livestock will be stressed over the next few days as the coldest airmass of the season moves swiftly from the north to the south through the contiguous U.S.
- February live cattle have extended below the 10-day moving average of $196.73, with additional support at $195.38. Initial resistance stands at $198.18.
Hog futures are posting heavy losses at midmorning.
- Hog futures are sharply weaker amid technical selling and concerns a seasonal low has not yet been scored in the cash index.
- The CME lean hog index is up another 9 cents to $81.91 as of Jan. 15, marking the fourth consecutive daily gain though the net advance has been only 76 cents and has lessened each day.
- China produced 57.06 MMT of pork in 2024, down 1.5% from 2023 and the first annual decline in four years. Hog slaughter totaled 702.56 million head last year, down 3.3% from 2023. In the fourth quarter, pork production fell 1.8% from year-ago to 14.66 MMT. China’s hog herd totaled 427.43 million head at the end of December, down 1.6%. China’s beef output rose 3.5% to 7.79 MMT in 2024.
- February lean hogs have extended below the 100- and 10-day moving averages of $81.75 and $81.63, along with additional support. Next support is at the top of the Jan. 9 gap at $80.00.