Market Snapshot | January 16, 2025

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | January 16, 2025
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly 4 to 7 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are taking back Wednesday’s gains in corrective trade amid pressured from soybeans and crude oil futures.
  • USDA reported daily corn sales of 135,000 MT to Taiwan for 2024-25.
  • USDA reported corn sales of 1.024 MMT for the week ended Jan. 9, up notably from the previous week but in line with the four-week average. Net sales exceeded the pre-report range of expectations from 500,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Exports were a marketing-year high at 1.484 MMT.
  • The International Grains Council cut its forecast for 2024-25 global corn production by 6 MMT to 1.219 billion tons.
  • The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine corn production forecast to 48 MMT from a previous range of 50 MMT to 51 MMT due to drought impacts.
  • March corn futures continue to find support at $4.71 3/4, while resistance stands at $4.77 1/2, which is backed by this week’s high of $4.79 3/4.

Soybeans are around 20 cents lower, while soymeal futures are nearly $7.00 lower. Soyoil is around 100 points lower.

  • Soybean futures are lower for the third straight session, with weakness in both meal and soyoil providing pressure.
  • USDA reported daily soybean sales of 132,000 MT to China for 2024-25.
  • USDA reported soybean sales of 569,100 MT for the week ended Jan. 9, which were up notably from the previous week but down 27% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of expectations from 300,000 MT to 800,000 MT, while exports for the week totaled 1.477 MMT.
  • India’s palm oil imports are set to plunge to a near five-year low in January amid negative refining margins as its premium drives buyers to more competitively priced soyoil, government and industry officials told Reuters. Two vegoil brokers and a shipping company that compiles data on vessels lined up to unload at ports estimated that imports could range between 340,000 MT and 370,000 MT this month, which would be the lowest monthly total since March 2020.
  • March soybeans are finding support at the 100-day moving average of $10.20 1/4, while resistance stands at $10.37 and $10.45 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents lower, while HRS futures are 3 to 5 cents lower.

  • Wheat futures are weaker despite a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger-than-expected weekly export sales.
  • USDA reported wheat export sales of 513,400 MT for the week ended Jan. 9, up notably from the previous week and 55% from the four-week average. Net sales topped the pre-report range of expectation from 15,000 MT to 400,000 MT, while exports totaled 196,500 MT for the week.
  • Consultancy Strategie Grains raised its 2025-26 soft wheat production forecast for the European Union, citing higher-than-expected plantings in Germany. The firm now projects the 2025 EU wheat crop at 127.2 MMT, up 600,000 MT from its initial forecast and 13 MMT above last year.
  • March SRW futures are testing support at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $5.40 and $5.38 1/2, while resistance remains at the 40-day moving average of $5.48 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are sharply lower at midsession.

  • Nearby live cattle are facing heavy selling in corrective trade following a recent string of solid gains.
  • Cash cattle have traded at mostly steady prices so far this week. While that signals the eight-week string of cash gains may be stalling, feedlots are current on marketings and won’t likely be willing sellers at prices less than recent levels.
  • USDA reported beef exports totaled 9,700 MT for 2025, while exports totaled 14,000 MT.
  • Choice boxed beef prices rose $1.16 to #334.14, while Select fell 67 cents to $318.04. Movement totaled 132 loads for the day.
  • Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and Costa Rica have been added to the list of regions affected by screwworm, as detailed in recent Federal Register notices. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) explained that regions are added based on screwworm detections reported by veterinary officials, the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) or other credible sources.
  • February live cattle are testing the 10-day moving average of $196.43, with further support at $195.00. Resistance stands at $199.09.

Hog futures are posting slight to moderate losses at midmorning.

  • Nearby hog futures are facing followthrough selling as technical pressure continues to limit the upside.
  • The CME lean hog index is up 11 cents to $81.10 as of Jan. 14, the third straight daily increase.
  • The pork cutout value rose 62 cents on Wednesday to $90.83 amid gains in all cuts aside from primal loins and butts. Movement totaled 325.5 loads.
  • USDA reported net pork sales of 30,300 MT for 2025, while exports totaled 38,200 MT.
  • February lean hogs have extended below the 20-day moving average of $82.50, with additional support at the 100- and 10-day moving averages, currently trading at $81.67 and $81.56. Initial resistance stands at $83.56.