Corn futures are mostly a penny lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures have retreated from the new for-the-move high forged in earlier trade, with some pressure stemming from corrective selling in crude oil futures.
- Brazilian crop estimating agency Conab trimmed its corn production forecast by 80,000 MT to 119.55 MMT amid a reduction in planted acreage for the country’s first crop. The agency kept its 2024-25 Brazilian export forecast at 34 MMT for corn.
- South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn estimate unchanged at 125 MMT but cut his Argentine estimate by 1 MMT to 49 MMT, due to hot, dry conditions.
- March corn futures have forged a fresh near-term high, with resistance at the intraday high of $4.79 3/4 and then at $4.82, while initial support lies at $4.71 1/2.
Soybeans are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower, while soymeal futures are around $2.00 lower. Soyoil is around 30 points higher.
- Soybean futures are mostly weaker after reaching a more than three-month high intraday, with pressure on soymeal limiting buyer interest.
- USDA reported daily soybean sales of 198,000 MT to China during 2024-25.
- Conab raised its 2024-25 soybean crop estimate 110,000 MT from last month to 166.32 MMT, though that’s still below most private crop forecasters that are at or slightly above 170 MMT. The agency kept its 2024-25 Brazilian export forecasts at 105.5 MMT for soybeans.
- Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean crop estimate 1 MMT to 170 MMT, citing dryness concerns in far southern production areas and yields in central Brazil maybe not being as strong as farmers expected due to constant overcast conditions. Cordonnier also cut his Argentine soybean estimate by 1 MMT to 52 MMT.
- March soybeans have edged to the highest intraday level since Oct. 8, with resistance at $10.62 3/4, which is backed by the 200-day moving average of $10.80 1/2. Meanwhile, initial support lies at $10.43 1/2.
Wheat futures are narrowly mixed in choppy trade at midmorning.
- Wheat futures are gaining support from U.S. dollar weakness and a slightly improved technical posture, though buyer interest is limited.
- Extreme cold will hit the U.S. over the weekend and early next week. Brief warming before the cold spell will melt snow across the Central Plains, exposing part of the winter wheat crop to cold damage. Winterkill risks are heightened, and the upcoming forecasts need careful monitoring.
- Unusually warm temperatures are expected to continue in the Black Sea region keeping snow cover minimal and very little frost on the ground, according to World Weather Inc. Some rain and snow are expected in the coming week and moisture will be good for improved crop establishment in the spring if there is no winterkill.
- March SRW futures are finding support at the 20- and 10-day moving averages, each trading around $5.41 1/4, which formerly served as resistance. Resistance at the 40-day moving average of $5.49 1/2 is being tested.
Live cattle and feeders are mostly firmer at midsession.
- Nearby live cattle are firmer amid persisting cash market support.
- Cash cattle prices jumped another $3.65 last week to $202.58, marking a record high for a second consecutive week. Cash cattle prices have strengthened for eight consecutive weeks, surging $17.79 during that span.
- Wholesale beef values rose 51 cents on Monday to $333.35 while Select jumped $3.43 to $317.57, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $15.78. Movement totaled 118 loads for the day.
- February live cattle are finding initial support at $196.40, while resistance stands at $198.33 and is backed by last week’s high of $199.10.
Hog futures are firmer at midmorning.
- Nearby hog futures continue to be supported by the recent corrective buying.
- The CME lean hog index is up 34 cents to $80.77 as of Jan. 10, halting the recent price decline.
- The pork cutout value fell $1.16 to $90.20 on Monday, led by declines in primal bellies, butts and loins. Movement totaled 321.5 loads for the day.
- February lean hogs are trading between the 40-day moving average of $84.14 and the 20-day moving average of $82.59.