Market Snapshot | January 13, 2025

Corn producers: Extend 2024-crop sales, make initial 2025-crop sales... March corn futures hit our sales target of $4.75 during the overnight session. While 2024-25 ending stocks are now projected to be borderline tight, we feel it’s prudent to maintain a disciplined approach when sales targets are hit. We advise corn hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 20% of 2024-crop production to get to 50% sold in the cash market. We also advise selling an initial 10% of expected 2025-crop production for harvest delivery. Our next upside sales target is the $5.00 level.

Corn futures are mostly a nickel higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures have extended to a fresh for-the-move high amid followthrough strength after last Friday’s price surge in reaction to a bigger-than-expected cut to ending stocks.
• USDA reported corn export inspections of 1.44 MMT (56.7 million bu.) during the week ended Jan. 2, up 563,792 MT from the previous week. Net inspections topped pre-report expectations from 500,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
• AgRural reported Brazil’s first crop corn harvest reached 1.3%. Safrinha corn planting won’t turn active until soybean harvest accelerates.
• Analyst APK-Inform forecasts Ukraine will export 37.79 MMT of grain in 2024-25, up 490,000 MT from its prior outlook. It raised the country’s corn export forecast by 500,000 MT to 20.5 MMT due to a bigger production estimate.
• Overnight, Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the U.S., Brazil, Argentina or South Africa.
• March corn futures are facing resistance at $4.76 3/4, while initial support lies at $4.66 1/4.

Soybeans are mostly 18 to 20 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around $6.00 to $7.00 higher. Soyoil is chopping around unchanged.

• Soybean futures are higher in the wake of Friday’s bullish government data, with soymeal leading gains.
• USDA reported daily soybean sales of 198,000 MT to China during 2024-25.
• USDA reported soybean export inspections of 1.35 MMT (49.6 million bu.) during the week ended Jan. 2, up 54,742 MT from the previous week and within the pre-report range of expectations from 1.075 MMT to 1.7 MMT.
• Forecasts call for rains to continue across central Brazil during the next two weeks, which could hinder early soybean harvest. Scattered rains are expected in dry far southern areas of Brazil, though that will provide some relief from heat and dryness. Argentina will be hot and dry the bulk of this week, though some temporary relief could come via rains and more seasonal temps Friday and Saturday.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 0.3% as of last Thursday, according to AgRural, behind 2.3% on this date last year. The firm says there’s strong yield potential in centra Brazil, though rains are hindering harvest activity and if that continues it could hurt crop quality. Heat and moisture stress is a concern in far southern Brazil.
• March soybeans pushed above $10.40 1/4, a level not breached since mid-November. Next resistance is the psychological $10.50 mark. Meanwhile, initial support lies at the 100-day moving average of $10.19 1/4.

Wheat futures are mostly 4 to 9 cents higher at midmorning.

• Wheat futures are firmer amid general strength across the ag complex, though U.S. dollar strength and technical resistance continues to minimize earnest short-covering.
• USDA reported wheat export inspections of 288,895 MT (10.6 million bu.) during the week ended Jan. 2, down 123,447 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of the pre-report range of expectations from 200,000 to 450,000 MT.
• Cold weather in U.S. wheat areas has not had any negative impact due to snow cover and that will likely continue to be the case through the next ten days to two weeks. The next coldest period in key wheat areas will hold off until after Jan. 18, according to World Weather Inc.
• March SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading around $5.49, while initial support lies at last week’s low of $5.26.

Live cattle and feeders are weaker at midsession.

• Nearby live cattle are modestly weaker as traders pause amid recent gains into overbought territory. Feeders are facing heavier selling pressure.
• Wholesale beef prices jumped $2.06 to $332.84 for Choice and $5.79 for Select to $314.14 on Friday. While packer margins remain in the red, surging wholesale beef prices have improved those levels and kept packers actively bidding for cash cattle.
• The U.S. exported 253.1 million lbs. of beef during November, up 12 million lbs. from October and 24 million lbs. more than last year. Through the first 11 months of 2024, beef shipments totaled 2.744 billion lbs., down 42.9 million lbs. (1.5%) from the same period the previous year. USDA raised its 2024 beef export forecast to 2.995 billion lbs., down 1.4% from 2023.
• February live cattle are trading within Friday’s range, limited by resistance at the previous session high of $199.10, while initial support lies at $197.92 and Friday’s low of $197.65.

Hog futures are firmer at midmorning.

• Nearby hog futures are extending gains from last week’s low amid technical support.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 16 cents to $80.43 as of Jan. 9, the lowest level since the beginning of March.
• The pork cutout value rose 88 cents on Friday to $91.36, led by gains in primal bellies and hams. Movement totaled 250.1 loads.
• The U.S. exported 643.5 million lbs. of pork in November, a record for the month and the highest monthly tally since April. Pork shipments increased 60.7 million lbs. from October and 36.4 million lbs. from year-ago. Through the first 11 months of 2024, pork exports totaled 6.469 billion lbs., up 289.3 million lbs. (4.7%) from the same period the previous year. USDA cut its 2024 pork export forecast by 10 million lbs. to 7.108 billion lbs.
• China imported 611,000 MT of meat in December, up 30,000 MT (5.2%) from the previous month. For 2024, China imported 6.67 MMT of meat, down 710,000 MT (9.6%) from the previous year.
• February lean hogs are testing resistance around $83.21, while support lies at $82.34, which is backed by the 100-day and 10-day moving averages of $81.37 and $81.09, respectively.