Corn futures are mostly unchanged to a penny higher at midmorning.
- Corn futures are mostly favoring the upside in narrow trade, as traders await USDA’s reports at 11:00 a.m. CT.
- Today is one of the biggest report days of the year for the grain markets as USDA will release its Annual Production Summary, monthly Supply & Demand Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings at 11:00 a.m. CT. Much of the focus will be on USDA’s “final” crop estimates for corn and soybeans, though quarterly corn stocks have a tendency to greatly move markets. Click here to view pre-report expectations.
- USDA reported corn export sales of 445,000 MT for the week ended Jan. 2, a marketing-year low and down 43% from the previous week and 61% from the four-week average. Net sales were well below the pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. Exports totaled 863,700 MT for the week.
- China’s ag ministry raised its estimate for the 2024 crop by 1.08 MMT to a record 294.92 MMT. The ministry slashed its 2024-25 corn import forecast by 4 MMT to 9 MMT, which is now down 14.41 MMT (61.6%) from last year.
- March corn is testing resistance at $4.57 1/2, with additional resistance at $4.59 1/4, which is backed by last week’s high of $4.60 1/4. The 10-day moving average of $4.55 3/4 is initial support.
Soybeans are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher, while soymeal futures are more than $3.00 lower. Soyoil is around 150 points higher.
- Soybean futures are firmer amid strong gains in soyoil, which stem from rallying crude oil futures.
- USDA reported soybean export sales of 288,700 MT for the week ended Jan. 2, a marketing-year low. Sales were shy of pre-report expectations from 400,000 MT to 1.3 MMT. Exports totaled 1.58 MMT during the week.
- China’s ag ministry kept its 2024-25 soybean import forecast at 94.6 MMT, down 10.15 MMT (9.7%) from last year.
- A lack of rain has caused water stress in a significant portion of soybean crops in the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul, state agency Emater/RS said in its weekly report released on Thursday.
- March soybeans have extended above the 10-day moving average of $9.98 3/4, with resistance now at $10.09 1/4. The 40-day moving average of $9.94 3/4 is initial support.
Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 6 cents lower at midmorning.
- SRW wheat futures are weaker amid continued strength in the U.S. dollar.
- USDA reported wheat export sales of 111,300 MT for the week ended Jan. 2, down 21% from the previous week and 70% from the four-week average. Net sales were shy of the pre-report range of expectations from 150,000 to 500,000 MT.
- Winter crops in most of Europe and the western CIS are dormant or semi-dormant. Most crops are well established, but not so much in the lower Danube River Basin, eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region or western Kazakhstan where dryness dominated the planting season. Most of these poorly established winter crop areas are unlikely to see threatening cold anytime soon, according to World Weather Inc.
- March SRW futures are trading within Thursday’s lower range, with support at $5.29 being tested, which is backed by last week’s low of $5.27 1/2. Resistance remains at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading around $5.41.
Live cattle are slightly to moderate firmer while feeders are moderately to sharply higher.
- Nearby live cattle have forged a new for-the-move high amid support from strong cash trade, with wholesale values lending additional support.
- Cash cattle traded as much as $4.00 to $5.00 higher on Thursday as packers continued their active pursuit of animals despite negative margins. The cash market will post an all-time high for a second straight week, which triggered strong gains in futures that remain at steep discounts.
- Wholesale beef values rose on Thursday, with Choice up $217 to $330.78, while Select increased $1.46 to $308.35. Movement totaled 116 loads for the day.
- USDA reported net beef sales of 5,600 MT for 2025 during the week ended Jan. 2.
- February live cattle have risen to the highest level since September 2023. Resistance is at the contract high of $199.575, while initial support lies at $196.80.
Hog futures are mostly firmer at midmorning.
- Nearby hog futures are modestly firmer, reaching a near two-week high in early trade.
- The CME lean hog index is down another 46 cents to $80.59 as of Jan. 8.
- The pork cutout value rose $2.13 on Thursday to $90.53 amid gains in all cuts aside from primal ribs. Movement remained solid at 418.4 loads.
- USDA reported net pork sales of 5,600 MT for 2025 during the week ended Jan. 2.
- February lean hogs have tested resistance at the 20-day moving average of $82.70, while the 100- and 10- day moving averages currently trading at $81.25 and $81.10 are providing notable support.