Market Snapshot | Iffy U.S. weather sparks wheat rally

Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are marking spillover gains from rallying wheat futures.
• Domestic corn prices in Brazil ended last week solidly higher at the highest level since April 2022. This year, Brazilian corn prices are up about 24%, led by strong feed and ethanol demand and low inventories. Stocks are likely to remain tight ahead of Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest in the early summer.
• AgRural reported safrinha corn plantings in Brazil were 97% complete as of last Thursday. Weather will continue to be closely monitored as the seasonal rainy period is nearing an end.
• USDA reported weekly corn inspections of 1.66 MMT for the week ended March 13, down 185,557 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 1.0 MMT to 1.95 MMT.
• May corn futures are being pared by the 10- and 100-day moving averages, currently trading at $4.64 1/2 and $4.66 1/4. Meanwhile, initial support lies at $4.59 1/2, then at the 200-day moving average of $4.55 1/4.

Soybeans are chopping around unchanged, while soymeal futures are around $1.50 lower. Soyoil is around 50 points firmer.

• Soybean futures are trading around unchanged, with soyoil gains offsetting some pressure from soymeal weakness.
• The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report its members crushed 185.2 million bu. of soybeans in February, according to a Reuters survey. That would be down 7.6% from January and 0.5% less than last year’s record for the month. Soyoil stocks are expected to rise to 1.386 billion pounds.
• AgRural reported the Brazilian soy harvest was 70% complete as of last Thursday, up from 61% a week ago and 63% a year ago.
• USDA reported weekly soybean inspections of 646,667 MT for the week ended March 13, down 206,978 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 300,000 to 950,000 MT.
  May soybean futures continue to face pressure from the 20- and 100-day moving averages, which have converged around $10.28 1/4, while the 10-day moving average of $10.12 3/4 is lending support.

Wheat futures are around 16 to 21 cents higher, with HRW wheat leading gains.

• SRW wheat futures are posting notable gains amid heightened concerns over U.S. crop conditions, with a weaker U.S. dollar also supportive.
• Concerns are increasing around U.S. HRW wheat areas suffering from hot, dry and windy conditions, with limited relief likely for a while, according to World Weather Inc. These conditions will remain a viable threat to wheat in the central and southwestern Plains where freeze damaged crops may not be able to recover.
• USDA reported weekly wheat inspections of 492,658 MT for the week ended March 13, up 251,012 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of 175,000 to 450,000 MT.
• Russia’s tax on wheat exports will decline to 2,403.0 rubles ($28.54) per metric ton for March 19-25, down from 2,444.4 rubles ($29.13) the previous week. Russian exports continue to fall below year-ago despite lower export taxes. Russia is estimated to export 1.5 MMT of wheat in March, down from 1.9 MMT in February and 4.8 MMT in March 2024.
• Overnight, Iran purchased around 120,000 MT of wheat, expected to be sourced from Russia.
• May SRW futures have tested resistance at the 20-, 100- and 40-day moving averages, while the 10-day moving average of $5.55 1/2 is serving up support.

Live cattle are moderately firmer while feeders are marking stronger gains at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are notching followthrough strength amid recent technical buying and persisting fundamental support.
• Cash cattle trade remained light into Friday of last week, with very few head trading hands ahead of the end of the week. Trade is likely to be pushed late into the week again this week given the Cattle on Feed Report.
• Wholesale beef values dipped on Friday, with Choice down $1.42 to $318.27, while Select dropped $1.15 to $306.32. Movement was light at only 93 loads.
• April live cattle are trading within Friday’s upper range, with resistance layered at Friday’s high of $204.575, which is backed by additional resistance $204.81. Meanwhile, support lies at $202.53.

Hog futures posting moderate- to strong gains at midsession.

• Nearby lean hogs have backed off earlier highs as technical resistance limits stronger buying.
• The CME lean hog index is down 19 cents to $89.55 as of March 13, though that remains above the late February low.
• The pork cutout value rose 9 cents to $97.38. Movement totaled 303.7 loads.
• April lean hogs gapped open above the 20-day moving average of $86.79, which is serving up support, while resistance stands at the 40- and 100-day moving averages of $8.60 and $88.72.