Market Snapshot | Grains, soy reclaim some losses

Corn futures are 4 to 6 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are taking back most of Wednesday’s losses amid corrective buying.
• USDA reported corn export sales of 967,300 MT for the week ended March 6, up 6% from the previous week but down 19% from the four-week average. Sales were within pre-report expectations from 725,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. Exports for the week notched a marketing-year high of 1.86 MMT.
• Conab raised its Brazilian corn crop outlook by 750,000 MT to 122.76 MMT, despite a 540,000-MT cut to projected safrinha production.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange trimmed its Argentine corn production forecast by 1.5 MMT to 44.5 MMT.
• Overnight, South Korea purchased a total of 262,000 MT of corn in three separate tenders – 132,000 MT to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa, 65,000 MT to be sourced from the U.S. or South America and 65,000 MT optional origin. South Korea also tendered to buy up to another 140,000 MT of corn to be sourced from the U.S., South America or South Africa.
• May corn futures are trading within Wednesday’s range. The 20-day moving average of $4.83 1/4 continues to serve as resistance, while support lies at the 200-day moving average of $4.55. 1/2.

Soybeans are 10 to 13 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around $8.00 higher. Soyoil is about 20 points lower.

• Soybean futures are solidly higher, with an upside breakout in meal providing support.
• USDA reported soybean export sales of 751,700 MT for the week ended March 6, which were up notably from the previous week and four-week average. Net sales topped pre-report expectations from 275,000 MT to 700,000 MT. Exports during the week totaled 923,100 MT.
• China is poised to receive record soybean imports in the second quarter after delayed Brazilian shipments and slow customs clearances have caused supply tightness that forced several processors to halt operations. China is forecast to import a record 31.3 MMT of soybeans from April to June, according to a Reuters survey, up 1.39 MMT (4.6%) from the same period last year.
• Conab raised its Brazilian soybean crop forecast by 1.36 MMT to 167.37 MMT. The 2024-25 soybean export forecast increased 300,000 MT to 105.74 MMT.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange cut its Argentine soybean crop forecast by 1 MMT to 46.5 MMT.
• May soybean futures are testing the 10-day moving average of $10.16 1/2, with additional resistance at the 100-day, currently trading at $10.27 1/4. Initial support lies at $10.00, which is backed by $9.98 1/4 and the March low of $9.96.

Wheat futures are 8 to 15 cents higher, with HRW contracts leading gains.

• Wheat futures are sharply higher despite strength in the U.S. dollar.
• USDA reported wheat export sales of 783,400 MT for the week ended March 6, which were up notably from the previous week and 83% from the four-week average. Net sales were well above the pre-report range of expectations from 275,000 to 650,000 MT.
• IKAR consultancy lowered its 2024-25 Russian wheat export forecast another 1.5 MMT to 41 MMT. The consultancy said exports could reach 42.5 MMT under a best-case scenario or fall to 38.5 MMT under a worst-case outcome – depending on the ruble and export price fluctuations.
• May SRW futures will face resistance at the convergence of the 100-, 40- and 20-day moving averages in the $5.72 to $5.74 range, while the 10-day of $5.53 3/4 continues to serve up support.

Live cattle and feeders are moderately to sharply higher at midmorning.

• Cattle futures have stormed back from a weaker start to post for-the-move highs.
• So far, only light cash cattle activity has been reported in Kansas at $200.00, roughly steady with week-ago. With the strength in cattle futures, most feedlots continue to hold out for higher prices, though packers remain reluctant to raise bids given highly negative margins.
• Choice boxed beef dipped a dime on Wednesday to $321.10 while Select rose 67 cents to $307.53. Movement was strong at 153 loads.
• April live cattle are challenging resistance at $202.025, while support remains at $200.19.

Hog futures are under pressure at midsession.

• Nearby lean hogs are mildly lower but have worked off their session lows given discounts to the cash index. Deferred futures are facing heavier selling.
• The CME lean hog index is up 7 cents to $89.77 as of March 11, ending a five-day price slide.
• The pork cutout fell $3.00 to $94.58 on Wednesday, led lower by a $13.25 decline in primal bellies.
• April lean hogs have briefly dipped below the 10-day moving average of $85.50, with additional support at $85.00. The 20-day moving average of $87.33 stands as resistance.