Market Snapshot | Grains, soy rebound from lows despite broad risk-off selling

April 3, 2025

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | April 3, 2025
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are chopping around unchanged at midmorning.

  • Corn futures have rebounded after gapping lower in overnight trade in the wake of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcement.
  • On Wednesday, April 2, President Donald Trump unveiled an extensive new tariff strategy during a Rose Garden ceremony at the White House. Dubbed “Liberation Day,” the announcement marks a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, intensifying global trade tensions and sparking concerns about inflation and economic disruption. See our Special Report for further details.
  • President Trump announced Mexico and Canada would not be subject to any new tariffs beyond the levies the president had previously announced. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico over fentanyl and migration will continue while those conditions persist.
  • USDA reported weekly export sales of 1.17 MMT for the week ended March 27, up 13% from the previous week and 6% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 800,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
  • May corn futures are facing resistance at the 20-day moving average of $4.61 1/4, while support lies at $4.47 1/2, which is backed by the recent low of $4.42.

Soybeans are mostly 13 to 16 cents lower, while soymeal futures are around $2.50 higher. Soyoil is around 170 points lower.

  • Soybean futures are lower, though firming soymeal futures from earlier lows are negating some selling pressure.
  • USDA reported weekly soybean sales of 410,200 MT for the week ended March 27, up 21% from the previous week but down 9% from the four-week average. Net sales were within pre-report expectations ranging from 250,000 to 800,000 MT.
  • World Weather Inc. notes Argentina will trend drier into the next week, which will be idea for filling and maturing summer crops and supporting their harvest.
  • May soybeans gapped notably lower in overnight trade, though support continued to serve at the psychological $10.00 level, while resistance stands at $10.20 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly unchanged to a penny lower, while. HRS futures are a penny to 2 cents higher.

  • SRW wheat futures are facing support from a diving U.S. dollar and stronger-than-expected weekly sales data, though technical resistance continues to be a limiting factor.
  • USDA reported weekly export sales of 340,000 MT for the week ended March 27, which rose noticeably from the previous week and 40% from the four-week average. Net sales topped the pre-report range from (100,000) to 300,000 MT.
  • Some low-lying wheat may face flood damage from heavy rains occurring through Saturday in areas of southeastern Missouri to southern Ohio and Kentucky
  • May SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $5.40, while support lies at $5.23, which is backed by the recent low of $5.17 1/2.

Live cattle are notably lower while feeders are posting heavier losses at midmorning.

  • Nearby live cattle have given up earlier strength as the general marketplace leans risk averse.
  • President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Australian goods while singling out the country’s beef exports for criticism on Wednesday. Australian farmers, traders and industry groups said on Thursday they would pass on any extra costs from tariffs to American consumers, potentially pushing up the prices of hamburgers and steaks. Australia exports around $2.5 billion worth of beef to the U.S. annually, its biggest market.
  • As has been the norm in recent weeks, cash cattle trade has had a slow start to the week as feedlots hold out for higher prices while packers are in no hurry amid negative cutting margins.
  • USDA reported weekly beef sales of 9,300 for 2025, up 16% from the previous week but down 19% from the four-week average.
  • April live cattle are pivoting around the 10-day moving average of $208.05, while support lies at $206.72. Meanwhile, resistance is layered at $209.01 and $209.96.

Hog futures are mixed at midsession, with nearby futures posting gains.

  • Nearby lean hogs are being propped up by strong export sales.
  • USDA reported net pork sales of 53,000 MT for 2025, a marketing year high and up 66% from the previous week and 88% from the four-week average.
  • The pork cutout value dipped $1.80 on Wednesday to $93.70 amid declines in all cuts. Movement totaled 332.2 loads.
  • April lean hogs have edged above the 40-day moving average of $87.84, with additional resistance serving at $88.15, while support lies at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $87.04 and $86.91.