Market Snapshot | Ag complex posting short-covering gains

April 1, 2025

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | April 1, 2025
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are extending gains for the third straight session amid short-covering.
  • Concern remains around the lack of moisture deep in the ground in areas of Brazil, which may impact late planted safrinha crops in late April, May and early June, hurting yield potentials after the monsoon season ends, according to World Weather Inc.
  • Strong to severe thunderstorms will bring multiple rounds of heavy rain from southeastern Missouri to southern Ohio and Kentucky Wednesday into Saturday, causing serious flooding and stalling fieldwork, notes World Weather.
  • May corn futures are holding mostly above the 10- and 20-day moving averages, trading at $4.59 1/2 and $4.61 1/2, while support remains at the 200-day moving average of $4.53 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly 13 to 15 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around 90 cents higher. Soyoil is around 175 points higher.

  • Soybean futures are solidly higher, with rallying soyoil leading the complex higher amid improving prospects of an enhanced biomass diesel blending mandate.
  • A coalition of oil and biofuel groups are expected to meet with the U.S. EPA today to make the case for higher federal mandates for biomass diesel blending, signaling fresh biofuel blending quotas for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) may be closer to a two-year deal.
  • Bloomberg reports that the U.S. is preparing to deliver a long-anticipated verdict on China’s compliance with the 2020 “Phase 1” trade deal — a review that could escalate tensions between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during an already high-stakes week for U.S./China relations.
  • USDA will report grain and oilseed crushings this afternoon. Crush is expected to have fallen month over month and year over year, given the shorter month. A Bloomberg report shows expectations for 188.6 million bushels of soybeans and 417.2 million bushels of corn being crushed in February.
  • May soybeans are hovering around the 20-day moving average of $10.31, with the 10- and 40-day moving averages of $10.36 1/2 and $10.42 1/4 serving up resistance. Initial support remains at $10.08 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are a penny to 4 cents higher.

  • SRW wheat futures are extending Monday’s short-covering gains, though overhead technicals continue to curb momentum.
  • Australia’s wheat production is likely to drop by 16% in 2025/26 from last year’s bumper crop as dryness reduces soil moisture in some regions. Farmers are planting their winter crops over the next couple months in the world’s third largest exporting country.
  • World Weather reports rain potentials for U.S. HRW wheat areas are good, although follow up rain will be extremely important.
  • May SRW futures are facing resistance at the 10-day moving average of $5.44 1/2, while support lies at $5.33 1/4 and again at $5.27 1/4.

Live cattle are posting moderate- to strong gains, while feeders are sharply higher at midmorning.

  • Nearby live cattle are modestly higher in narrow trade, with technical support limiting seller interest.
  • Last week’s cash cattle average did slip 62 cents from the previous week’s record but remained strong at $212.14.
  • Wholesale beef values improved on Monday, with Choice up $2.44 to $335.26, while Select rose $1.33 to $320.01. Movement totaled 120 loads.
  • April live cattle are trading narrowly around the 10-day moving average of $207.48, with support serving at $206.85, while resistance stands at $208.73.

Hog futures are notably firmer at midsession.

  • Nearby lean hogs are posting gains as fundamentals continue to support prices.
  • The CME lean hog index continues to slide, falling another 28 cents to $88.50 as of March 28.
  • The pork cutout value rose 89 cents to $97.45, with gains in primal hams, bellies and ribs offsetting declines in picnics, loins and butts. Movement totaled 231.6 loads.
  • April lean hogs are facing resistance at the 40-day moving average of $87.99, while support lies around $87.38.