Corn futures are mostly 3 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures are trading lower for the third consecutive session.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentinian forecasts unchanged at 123 MMT and 46 MMT, respectively, maintaining a neutral bias. He noted that safrinha corn plantings were rapid and not much of the crop will be planted beyond the ideal window.
- Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum reaffirmed her commitment to securing a deal with the U.S. to prevent the imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican exports, set to take effect on March 4. The market seems to imply that the tariffs will be put in place as price action has turned bearish.
- May corn futures are struggling to garner much bullish momentum. Support comes in at $4.90 3/4, the 40-day moving average, which capped early session weakness. Resistance comes in at the psychological $5.00 mark on a bounce.
Soybeans are 1 to 3 cents lower, while soymeal futures are around $1.00 higher. Soyoil is around 15 cents lower.
- Soybean futures have traded on either side of unchanged so far today.
- Cordonnier cut his Brazilian soy production forecast by 1 MMT to 170 MMT due to recent dryness in southern areas of the nation. He maintains a neutral to slightly lower bias. He left his Argentine forecast at 48 MMT.
- May soybeans looked to breakdown in early trade but have since bounced. Support stands at $10.37 1/4, while bulls are looking to overcome 40-day moving average resistance at $10.48 1/2, which is quickly backed by resistance at $10.54.
SRW wheat futures are mostly 8 to 9 cents lower, HRW and HRS futures are around 6 cents lower.
- Wheat futures are facing followthrough selling pressure.
- Weakness in corn has bled into wheat, negating much of the recent premiums built into the market over the past few weeks due to U.S. production concerns. Winter damage is likely in many states from Montana and South Dakota into northern Texas, but at this juncture it is hard to quantify how much production was hit.
- The consensus among the marketplace is that tariffs will move into place as promised by the Trump administration. That is likely to build trade barriers with Mexico and China, both of which have increased purchases of U.S. wheat in recent months.
- May SRW futures challenged 40-day moving average support at $5.81 1/4 and bounced from that level, marking that as initial support. Resistance comes in at $5.90 on continued strength.
Live cattle are posting modest gains at midsession, while feeders are moderately higher.
- Nearby live cattle are posting gains for the second straight session.
- Last week’s cash cattle average fell $3.27 to $199.64, the third straight weekly decline. Traders anticipate the weakness in cash prices could come to an end, as February futures are now trading slightly above last week’s average.
- Wholesale beef prices bounced on Monday, as Choice rose $2.96 to $313.73 while Select rose $1.41 to $303.97. While cash cattle prices have weakened, weakness in beef has continued to push packer margins deep into the red.
- April live cattle broke the downtrend from the late January high and are breaking out on the daily bar chart. Bulls are looking to overcome 40-day moving average resistance at $196.35, while initial support lies at $195.50, which is reinforced by support at $193.80.
Hog futures are modestly lower at midmorning.
- Nearby lean hogs continue to face persistent selling pressure for the fifth consecutive session.
- The CME lean hog index is down 85 cents to $89.68 as of Feb. 21, the second consecutive daily decline.
- Pork cutout rose another $1.36 to $98.43 Monday, led by gains in bellies and butts. As cutout led cash hog prices lower last week, it could provide relief to falling cash hog prices as cutout bounced higher.
- April lean hogs are challenging the Feb. 3 low of $86.35. Bulls are looking to challenge $88.00 resistance on a bounce.