Note: Due to Monday’s government holiday, USDA’s export sales data for the week ended Feb. 13 will be released Friday morning.
Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher at midmorning.
- Corn futures are recapturing a portion of Wednesday’s losses amid outside market support and a firmer soy complex.
- The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for 2024-25 global corn production by 3 MMT to 1.216 billion MT, though it remains slightly higher than USDA’s current projection of 1.212 billion.
- Ukraine’s farm ministry said traders had exported almost 28 MMT of grain as of Feb. 19, including 13.8 MMT of corn and is estimated to have 6.7 MMT left for export.
- Water levels on the Mississippi River near and south of Memphis have risen greatly in recent days following the widespread excessive rain that fell in Kentucky, northwestern Tennessee and surrounding areas last week.
- March corn futures are trading within Wednesday’s range, with resistance from $5.02 1/2 to the previous session high of $5.04 1/2. Support is layered at Wednesday’s close of $4.97 1/2 to the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $4.93 and $4.90 1/2.
Soybeans are 9 to 12 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around $2.00 higher. Soyoil is around 70 cents higher.
- Soybean futures are being propelled by a weaker U.S. dollar.
- Brazil’s center-west production areas will trend wetter late this weekend and next week with more frequent showers and thunderstorms likely to slow farming activity, according to World Weather Inc.
- Indian refiners have canceled 70,000 MT of crude palm oil orders (CPO) scheduled between March and June due to soaring Malaysian benchmark prices and negative refining margins, Reuters reports. India made the cancellations over the past three days, including 40,000 MT on Thursday, following an 11% rise in Malaysian palm oil futures over the past month.
- March soybeans are testing the 10 moving averages of $10.41 1/2, which is backed by the 20-day average at $10.48 1/4. Support lies at the 40-day moving average of $10.31 1/4.
Winter wheat futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents lower, while HRS futures are 1 to 2 cents higher.
- SRW wheat futures are marking followthrough losses, though technical support is curbing heavier seller interest.
- India is facing warm, dry weather, threatening its wheat crop and raising the prospect of the government cutting or removing import duties. Rainfall across the country’s northwest region, a major wheat growing belt, has been almost 80% below normal since the beginning of the year, according to the India Meteorological Department.
- Bitter cold air settled into the western and southern Russia’s winter crop region along with Ukraine and western Kazakhstan during the past week. Colder-than-normal temps will persist during the next several days and nighttime readings will again drop near the threshold for crop damage. However, World Weather Inc. says no crop damage is expected since the only threatening temperatures will be in areas with significant snow cover.
- March SRW futures are finding support at the 10-day moving average of $5.85 3/4, while initial resistance stands at $5.96 1/4 and is backed by the 200-day moving average of $5.99 3/4.
Live cattle are posting moderate- to strong losses while feeders are sharply lower at midsession.
- Nearby live cattle are marking hefty losses amid technical selling.
- Choice boxed beef fell $1.88 to $313.89 on Wednesday, while Select rose a nickel to $303.76. Wholesale beef prices are likely to face more near-term pressure amid a seasonally weak period for beef demand.
- Cash cattle trade has been limited and will likely remain that way into Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report.
- April live cattle are consolidating mostly between support at $193.24 and resistance at $195.51.
Hog futures are moderately lower at midmorning.
- Nearby lean hogs are weaker amid a fading technical posture and persisting wholesale weakness.
- The CME lean hog index continues to strengthen, rising another 79 cents to $90.98 as of Feb. 18.
- Pork cutout fell another $3.95 to 495.52 on Wednesday, led lower by a $16.75 drop in bellies. Over the past two days, the cutout dropped $6.95 amid a $27.00 plunge in primal belly prices.
- April lean hogs dropped below support at the 40-day moving average of $89.47. Resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $90.94.