Corn producers: Increase old- and new-crop sales... March corn futures are near our sales target at $5.00. Given uncertainty on the trade front and an upcoming three-day holiday weekend, we don’t want to risk a sharp price downturn. We advise corn hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 20% of 2024-crop production to get to 70% sold in the cash market. We also advise all corn producers to sell another 10% of expected 2025-crop production to get to 20% forward sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat producers: Increase old-crop sales... March SRW wheat futures hit our sales target at $6.00. We advise wheat hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 15% of 2024-crop production to get to 85% sold in the cash market.
Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midmorning.
- Corn futures made fresh for-the-move highs following this morning’s open amid broad-based buying in the grain and soy markets, along with heavy pressure on the U.S. dollar.
- Much of Brazil is expected to remain wet over the next couple of weeks, though gaps between showers are expected to be long enough to allow harvesting of first-crop beans and planting of safrinha corn to advance at a steady pace.
- USDA reported daily corn sales of 100,000 MT for delivery to Colombia during the 2024-25 marketing year.
- March corn futures are struggling to overcome psychological $5.00 resistance. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above support at $4.94 1/2 on a pullback.
Soybeans are 11 to 14 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around $7.00 higher. Soyoil is around 35 points lower.
- Soybean futures are higher amid corrective buying after falling to the lowest level since mid-January earlier this week.
- Argentine crop conditions continue to deteriorate but recent rains over southern portions of the nation are expected to support crops. Northern portions of Argentina are forecast to receive regular bouts of rain in the coming week.
- The White House released a fact sheet outlining examples of trade policies and actions by other countries that would be targeted via the reciprocal tariff action. While soybeans were not explicitly mentioned, agricultural goods can often be caught in the cross-fire as trade tensions escalate.
- March soybeans are challenging resistance at $10.44, while additional strength would target the psychological $10.50 mark. Support comes in at $10.33 1/2 on a reversal lower.
Winter wheat futures are around 18 to 20 cents higher, with HRS contracts around 15 cents higher.
- Wheat futures are leading the grain market higher at mid-morning.
- Reports of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have some traders betting that would lead to a stop of Russia dumping wheat on the world market in order to fund the war effort, driving prices higher.
- France’s ag ministry rated 73% of the country’s winter wheat crop as good/excellent as of Feb. 10, up five percentage points from last year, which was a four-year low.
- The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) said the state’s wheat production was approximately 1.6 MMT more than its December forecast. Western Australia produced 12.45 MMT of wheat, GIWA said in its final report of the 2024-25 growing season. Yields in other Australian states also exceeded expectations, leading analysts to raise their national production estimates to between 32 MMT and 35.5 MMT.
- March SRW futures are challenging psychological resistance at $6.00, while the 200-day moving average of $5.91 1/4 is support.
Live cattle and feeders are moderately to sharply weaker at midmorning.
- Nearby live cattle continue to consolidate near this week’s lows.
- Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Thursday as Choice cutout slipped $1.86 to $317.40 while Select climbed 70 cents to $309.84, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to a tight $7.56.
- Cash cattle trade remains light so far this week, averaging $2.00 to $3.00 below a week ago in most areas.
- April live cattle have traded most of the past few days between resistance at $196.775 and support at $194.95. Bulls are targeting resistance at $197.50 while additional support lies at $193.35.
Hog futures are modestly higher at midmorning.
- Nearby lean hogs are consolidating beneath this week’s high.
- The CME lean hog index is up another 98 cents to $88.06 as of Feb. 12, marking the biggest daily gain in the seasonal climb for the second straight day.
- Pork cutout climbed above $100.00 for the first time in three months on Thursday, rising $2.24 to $100.87 as all cuts except picnics rose on the day.
- April lean hogs futures opened higher but struggled to extend gains as resistance at $94.325 limited gains. Bulls are seeking to hold prices above yesterday’s low of $93.10.