Corn futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher at midmorning.
- Corn futures are extending Monday’s gains ahead of USDA’s supply and demand update amid outside market support.
- Analysts expect USDA to make modest changes to its domestic usage and ending stocks forecasts in the Supply & Demand Report at 11:00 a.m. CT. Traders expect slightly smaller ending stocks of 1.526 billion bu. for corn (1.540 billion bu. in January). USDA’s global production and ending stocks forecasts may attract more attention.
- South American crop consultant maintained his Brazilian corn production forecast at 123 MMT but holds a neutral to lower bias given safrinha planting delays in Mato Grosso. He also left his Argentine corn estimate unchanged at 47 MMT amid modestly improving weather.
- China’s ag ministry made no changes to its supply and demand tables for 2024-25 this month. The ministry continues to forecast 2024-25 imports at 9 MMT for corn, down sharply from 23.41 MMT in 2023-24.
- March corn is testing resistance at $4.95 1/2, while initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $4.91 1/2, then at $4.88 3/4.
Soybeans are 6 to 7 cents higher, while soymeal futures unchanged to modestly weaker. Soyoil is around 80 points higher.
- Soybean futures are firmer with soyoil strength bolstering buyer interest.
- Analysts expect USDA to trim soybean ending stocks of 374 million bu. on average, down from 380 million bu. in January.
- Cordonnier raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate 1 MMT to 171 MMT due to “surprising harvest progress in central Brazil last week and the anticipation of another good harvest week this week.” With somewhat drier weather in the forecast, he is less concerned about harvest delays and crop quality. Cordonnier left his Argentine forecast unchanged at 49 MMT.
- Brazil’s Port of Santos is preparing for a significant increase in cargo flow due to the record 2024-25 grain harvest, estimated at 322.3 MMT. Truck traffic at the port is expected to spike from the usual 3,000 trucks per day to 15,000 during peak export months of March to June.
- China’s ag ministry continues to forecast 2024-25 imports at 94.6 MMT for soybeans, down from 104.75 MMT in 2023-24.
- March soybeans have extended back above the 20-day moving average of $10.51 1/2, with additional resistance serving at $10.57 1/2. Initial support lies around $10.44.
Wheat futures are 2 to 7 cents higher, with SRW contracts leading gains.
- SRW wheat futures are higher after price pressure the past two sessions, with support stemming from a weaker U.S. dollar.
- Analysts expect wheat ending stocks to rise modestly to 799 million bu. from 798 million bu. in January.
- France’s ag ministry increased its estimate of winter wheat plantings to 4.57 million hectares from 4.51 million hectares in its initial projection in December. That’s 10% above 2024 and 0.4% above the five-year average though still relatively low from a historical perspective.
- Kazakhstan has resolved most of its grain transit and transshipment issues with Russia, allowing grain exports to Europe and North Africa through Russia’s Baltic ports to flow unhindered, the country’s agriculture minister said. The two countries have been in a grain trade dispute since last year with both banning each other’s grain from their domestic markets.
- March SRW futures are testing resistance at $5.84 3/4, with additional resistance standing at $5.90 1/4 and $5.92 1/2. Initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $5.74.
Live cattle and feeders are facing heavy price pressure at midsession.
- Nearby live cattle are sharply lower amid a fading technical posture.
- This week’s cattle slaughter is expected to slow even more from last week’s estimated 584,000 head tally, as beef plants continue to control throughput amid tight supplies and poor margins. High carcass weights are helping make up for some of the reduced numbers.
- Wholesale beef values rose on Monday, with Choice up $1.63 to $323.50 and Select up $1.02 to $313.92. Movement was light, however, at only 83 loads.
- April live cattle have extended to the lowest intraday level since Jan. 2, with support at $194.61. Initial resistance is at Monday’s close of $198.125.
Hog futures are slightly to moderately firmer at midmorning.
- Nearby lean hogs are recouping Monday’s losses as firm technical support continues to limit selling interest.
- The CME lean hog index is up another 36 cents to $85.75 as of Feb. 7, extending the seasonal climb.
- Pork cutout firmed $2.62 to $99.62 on Monday behind strong gains in all cuts except butts – the highest level since Nov. 11. Surging wholesale values have kept packer margins in the black despite rising cash hog prices.
- April lean hogs are trading within Monday’s range, with resistance at $92.875, while support lies at the 10-day moving average of $90.90.