Market Snapshot | December 30, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | December 30, 2024
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures have turned lower after extending to a fresh for-the-move high in early trade.
  • Argentine farmers are expected to plant 6.6 million hectares of corn this year, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, up 300,000 hectares from its prior forecast.
  • USDA reported corn export inspections of 878,380 MT (34.6 million bu.), down 267,805 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of the pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
  • March corn futures challenged resistance at $4.58 before weakening and are now testing initial support at $4.52 1/2.

Soybeans are unchanged to 3 cents lower, while soymeal futures are around $2.00 higher. Soyoil is around 20 points lower.

  • Soybean futures are chopping around unchanged, with support from meal, but have faded from earlier highs in tandem with corn futures.
  • USDA reported daily soyoil sales of 23,000 MT to India for 2024-25.
  • USDA reported soybean export inspections of 1.57 MMT (57.7 million bu.), down 204,469 MT from the previous week but within pre-report estimates ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.75 MMT.
  • Brazil will be quite wet from eastern Mato Grosso, Goias and parts of Tocantins to Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo during the next week to 10 days, according to World Weather Inc. Central and east-central Argentina, portions of Uruguay, western Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and southwestern Paraguay will be dry or mostly dry for at least 10 days and probably two weeks.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced Argentina’s soybean planted area 200,000 hectares from its original forecast.
  • March soybean futures continue to be limited by the 10-day moving average, currently trading around $10.00, while initial support lies at $9.86.

Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 2 cents lower.

  • SRW wheat futures continue to face technical headwinds and pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.
  • USDA reported wheat export inspections of 337,685 MT (12.4 million bu.), down 68,238 MT but within the pre-report range of 200,000 to 425,000 MT.
  • Conditions for winter wheat crops will worsen in Russia’s Central and Volga areas in January as warmer-than-usual weather and excess moisture causes sprouts to keep growing during the winter, the state weather agency said.
  • Russia’s tax on wheat exports will decline to 4,346.1 rubles ($40.45) per metric ton for Jan. 13-14, down from 4,768.7 rubles ($44.38) from Dec. 25-Jan. 12. The export tax has still surged 379% since mid-September, as Russia’s ag ministry tries to slow shipments.
  • March SRW futures are facing resistance at $5.54 1/4, which is backed by the 40-day moving average of $5.58 3/4. Initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $5.41 1/4.

Live cattle are slightly higher while feeders are mixed at midsession.

  • Nearby live cattle are firmer on support from stronger cash cattle trade last week combined with wholesale beef strength.
  • Cash cattle traded at mostly $1.00 higher prices last Friday, suggesting the string of cash cattle strength will extend to six straight weeks when official data is released later this morning.
  • Wholesale beef prices firmed $1.99 for Choice to $322.38 and $2.36 for Select to $291.13 last Friday. That was the highest level for Choice beef since Oct. 28.
  • February live cattle are facing resistance around $191.57, while support lies at $190.42.

Hog futures are sharply lower at midmorning.

  • Hog futures are posting heavy losses as funds liquidate long positions.
  • The CME lean hog index is down 25 cents to $84.85 as of Dec. 26, snapping a six-day string of gains.
  • The pork cutout dropped 62 cents last Friday to $95.07, as declines in loins, butts and picnics offset gains in other cuts.
  • February lean hogs have extended to the lowest level since October, with support at the 100-day moving average of $80.42, while resistance stands at $84.25.