Corn futures are unchanged to a penny lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures have weakened after earlier strength, limited by technical resistance.
- South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine corn crop estimates at 125 MMT and 48 MMT, respectively.
- The Mississippi River has still not fully recovered from recent dry weather. Rains over the next week could be helpful, though central regions of the U.S. will need more rainfall ahead of freezes, which will hinder water flow.
- The amount of corn utilized to make ethanol in Brazil continues to increase at a rapid pace. At the Technical Corn Meeting in Cuiaba, Mato Grosso on Nov. 28-29, the financial director of Mato Grosso Research Supper and Research foundation estimated more than 30 MMT (25%) of Brazil’s corn production would be used to produce ethanol in 2025.
- March corn futures are facing resistance at the 20-day moving average of $4.36, while the 40-day moving average, currently trading at $4.32 1/4, is initial support.
Soybeans are mostly 2 to 5 cents higher, while soymeal futures are $2.00 to $3.00 higher. Soyoil is mostly around 30 points firmer.
- Soybean futures are posting modest corrective gains, in tandem with soyoil and meal futures.
- Cordonnier raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate another 2 MMT to 170 MMT, noting the only concern for dryness in Brazil was in western Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Santa Catarina and parts of Rio Grande do Sul. He maintains a neutral/higher bias toward the crop. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 57 MMT.
- Malaysian palm oil futures rose on Tuesday, underpinned by supply concerns due to floods in peninsular Malaysia and a higher Indonesian export tax and levy in December.
- January soybean futures continue to be limited by the 20-day moving average of $9.99, which is backed by the 40-day moving average of $10.00 3/4. Meanwhile, the 10-day moving average of $9.88 1/4 is curbing seller interest, and is backed by support at $9.78 1/4.
Winter wheat futures are 3 to 4 cents higher, while HRS futures are mostly 4 to 5 cents higher.
- Wheat futures are posting modest corrective gains, with support stemming from the pullback in the U.S. dollar.
- U.S. HRW wheat areas benefited from rain in recent weeks with good root and tiller systems suspected in many production areas, notes World Weather Inc.
- Cooler temps are pushing most U.S. crops in the Midwest and Central Plains into dormancy. Crops farther north are already dormant or semi-dormant.
- March SRW futures are facing resistance at $5.57 1/4, while initial support lies at $5.47 1/2.
Live cattle are posting moderate to strong gains, while feeders are sharply higher.
- Nearby live cattle are notably firmer amid solid technical support.
- Wholesale beef prices rose $2.49 for Choice to $313.01 and $2.70 for Select to $277.00 on Monday. Despite the beef strength, packer margins remain solidly in the red.
- Given the availability of December-contracted cattle, strong packer purchases the past two weeks and holiday-shortened slaughter schedules around the upcoming holidays, traders sense the recent cash market strength may end.
- December live cattle are trading within Monday’s upper range, with resistance layered at $188.51 and the previous session high of $188.80. Initial support lies at $187.82.
Hog futures are mildly firmer at midmorning.
- December hog futures are modestly higher, despite weaker cash fundamentals, as traders continue to narrow discounts to the cash index.
- The CME lean hog index is down another 85 cents to $84.36 as of Nov. 29, extending the recent price slide.
- Pork cutout firmed $2.35 to $92.66 on Monday, led by strength in hams, though all cuts except butts posted gains.
- December lean hogs gapped higher at the open, extending above recent resistance at $83.60, with additional resistance at $83.975. Initial support lies at Monday’s high of $83.275.