Market Snapshot | December 24, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | December 24, 2024
(Pro Farmer)

Note: Grain and livestock markets trade abbreviated sessions today, closing at 12:05 and 12:15 CT, respectively. All markets and government offices are closed on Wednesday, Dec. 25, for Christmas. There will be no Pro Farmer updates on Wednesday. Grain and livestock markets will reopen at 8:30 a.m. CT on Thursday, Dec. 26. Pro Farmer wishes you a blessed Christmas.

Corn futures are unchanged to a penny higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are favoring the upside in low volume trade.
  • South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn estimate unchanged at 125 MMT, noting a neutral bias going forward. He also left his Argentine estimate unchanged at 49 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias.
  • Some parts of Argentina will face slowing crop development while late season planting accelerates due to less than usual precip over the next ten days, according to World Weather Inc.
  • March corn futures are trading within Monday’s upper range, with initial support serving at $4.45 3/4, while initial resistance stands at Monday’s high of $4.48 3/4.

Soybeans are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around $1.00 higher. Soyoil is around 20 points higher.

  • Soybean futures are taking back some of Monday’s losses, with some support from modest gains in soymeal.
  • Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier to raise his Brazilian soybean production forecast by 1 MMT to 171 MMT. He noted weather remains favorable for Brazil’s soybean crop and early yields are strong and maintained a neutral to higher bias toward the crop. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 55 MMT.
  • World Weather reports Rain is still expected to be abundant and frequent in Brazil from its center west region into Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo during the next couple of weeks
  • January soybean futures continue to find support at $9.65 1/4 while the 10-day moving average of $9.76 3/4 continues to curb buyer interest.

Wheat futures are mostly 4 to 6 cents lower.

  • SRW wheat futures are facing pressure from looming technicals and a firmer U.S. dollar.
  • Securing access for Russia’s winter wheat and barley to the Chinese market remains a priority for the coming year, Russia’s agricultural watchdog said. China has so far only allowed spring wheat imports from Russia.
  • China’s 2024-2035 action plan, jointly issued by the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration and other government departments, plan to boost consumption of cereal grains and develop the industry through higher production standards, research and international cooperation as part of efforts to enhance food security. The plan also encourages companies and private capital to establish development funds to support the whole grain industry.
  • March SRW futures are trading within Monday’s range, limited by the previous session high and low of $5.44 and $5.33. Additional resistance/support serves at the 10-day moving average of $5.45 1/4 and $5.28 1/4.

Live cattle are firmer while feeders are modestly weaker at midsession.

  • Nearby live cattle are modestly firmer in light holiday trade.
  • Cash cattle averaged $194.73 last week, up 42 cents and the fifth straight weekly gain. While packers purchased less than 50,000 head, they have holiday-shortened slaughters the next two weeks and will have fresh contracted supplies available with the flip of the calendar.
  • Wholesale beef values rose on Monday, with Choice gaining 13 cents to $315.98 while Select rose 84 cents to $286.75. Movement totaled 114 loads for the day.
  • February live cattle are facing resistance at the 40-day moving average of $187.62, while initial support lies at $186.96. Additional resistance stands at $188.26 and further support lies at $186.47.

Hog futures are lower at midmorning.

  • Hog futures are weaker following a slightly negative Hogs & Pigs Report, though a strengthening cash index is limiting losses.
  • USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the Dec. 1 U.S. hog herd at 75.845 million head, up 384,000 head (0.5%) from last year and 309,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. The breeding herd at 6.004 million head was virtually unchanged. The market hog inventory of 69.841 million head increased 378,000 head (0.5%) from last year.
  • The CME lean hog index is up another 40 cents to $84.75 as of Dec. 20, marking gains in six of the last eight days. During that span, the index has risen $1.42 from what appears like it will be the seasonal low on Dec. 9.
  • The pork cutout value slid $2.66 on Monday to $94.62 amid declines in all cuts. Movement totaled 301.5 loads for the day.
  • February lean hogs are trading within Monday’s lower range, limited by resistance at the 10-day moving average of $84.28, while initial support lies at the previous session low of $83.35 and is backed by support at $83.13.