Market Snapshot | December 19, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | December 19, 2024
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are choppy with a downside bias at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are chopping around unchanged as continued pressure in wheat futures is negating support from the soy complex.
  • USDA reported corn export sales of 1.175 MMT for the week ended Dec. 12, up 24% from the previous week but down 10% from the four-week average. Net sales were within expectations ranging from 800,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. Exports totaled 1.055 MMT.
  • Overnight, South Korea purchased 201,000 MT of corn – 65,000 MT expected to be sourced from South America and 136,000 MT from unspecified origins – 86,800 MT of U.S
  • March corn futures are pivoting around the the 20-day moving average of $4.37 1/2, with additional resistance at $4.40 1/4 and the 10-day moving average of $4.42 3/4. The 40-day moving average of $4.35 3/4 is serving as support.

Soybeans are mostly 4 to 6 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around $2.00 higher. Soyoil is modestly weaker.

  • Soybean futures are firmer for the first session in five, with soymeal strength lending support.
  • USDA reported daily soybean sales of 227,000 MT to unknown destinations, of which 152,000 MT is for 2024-25 and 75,000 MT for 2025-26.
  • USDA reported weekly soybean sales of 1.42 MMT, up 21% from the previous week but down 27% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of expectations from 825,000 MT to 2.0 MMT. Exports during the week totaled 1.69 MMT.
  • Indonesia plans to increase the crude palm oil (CPO) export tax to 10% from the current 7.5%, aiming to fund expanded biodiesel subsidies, according to Chief Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto. The higher levy will take effect once the finance ministry finalizes the regulation.
  • January soybean futures have rebounded from a contract low at $9.45 1/4 earlier today, which is initial support, while initial resistance stands at $9.69 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly a nickel to 8 cents lower while HRS futures are 3 to 5 cents lower.

  • SRW wheat futures have extended to a fresh contract low, despite notable export sales data, amid continued strength in the U.S. dollar.
  • USDA reported wheat export sales of 457,900 MT for the week ended Dec. 12., up 58% from the previous week and 16% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range of expectations from 225,000 to 550,000 MT.
  • European Union soft wheat production could rise 11% in 2025-26 in a rebound from a 12-year low, Strategie Grains said. In its first production forecast for next season, the firm projected output of soft wheat at 126.6 MMT, up from 114.2 MMT this year. The firm projected EU wheat exports in 2025-26 at 29.3 MMT, up from 23.8 MMT expected in the current marketing year.
  • India’s food secretary says there’s no need for wheat imports and he expects domestic prices to moderate soon. He also said India may allow sugar exports if there are surplus supplies after meeting domestic consumer demand and ethanol blending requirements.
  • March SRW futures posted a new low at $5.31 1/4. The previous low at $5.40 is initial resistance.

Live cattle and feeders are sharply lower at midsession.

  • Nearby live cattle are posting heavy losses amid technical selling.
  • Wholesale beef prices weakened for a second straight day on Wednesday, with Choice down 79 cents to $314.84 and Select down $2.95 to $285.55. The $315.00 and $285.00 levels have become the comfort zone for both packers and retailers.
  • USDA reported net beef sales of 7,200 MT for 2024, down 35% from the previous week and 5% from the four-week average.
  • California declared a state of emergency over the H5N1 virus as it spread more widely in dairy herds and after it has infected dozens of farm workers. The declaration aims to streamline and expedite the state’s response by allowing more flexibility for staffing, contracting and other rules, Gov. Gavin Newsome said.
  • February live cattle fell below the 40-day moving average of $187.81, with next support at the 200-day moving average of $186.28.

Hog futures are mildly firmer at midmorning.

  • Hog futures are modestly firmer amid support from a firming cash market.
  • The CME lean hog index is up another 18 cents to $84.16 as of Dec. 17, the fourth gain in the last six days. While the net gain during that span is only 84 cents, the index is showing signs of a potential seasonal bottom.
  • The pork cutout firmed $1.58 on Wednesday to $96.35, as gains in ribs, hams and bellies offset losses in the other cuts.
  • USDA reported net pork sales of 11,200 MT for 2024, down 50% from the previous week and 52% from the four-week average.
  • February lean hogs are facing resistance at the 10-day moving average of $84.74, which is backed by the 40- and 20-day moving averages. Initial support remains at $83.21.