Market Snapshot | December 18, 2024

Market Snapshot

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | December 18, 2024
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are lower for the second straight session amid pressure from the soy complex.
  • USDA reported daily corn sales of 135,000 MT to Colombia for 2024-25.
  • Ethanol production averaged 1.103 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Dec. 13, up 25,000 (2.3%) from the previous week and 32,000 bpd (3.0%) above the same week last year. Ethanol stocks declined 12,000 barrels to 22.636 million barrels.
  • China’s Sinograin announced it will stop auctioning imported corn from its inventories to boost domestic corn prices, which have dropped to their lowest level in four-and-a-half years. The state stockpiler previously committed to increasing purchases and storage of domestically produced corn. However, the impact of this action may be limited, as auction volumes of imported corn are relatively small.
  • March corn futures are trading within Tuesday’s range with support at $4.40 3/4, while resistance stands at $4.46 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly around 20 cents lower, while soymeal futures are about $6.00 lower. Soyoil is around 100 points lower.

  • Soybean futures are posting heavy losses amid sharp losses in both soyoil and meal futures.
  • USDA reported daily soymeal sales of 120,000 MT to Colombia for 2024-25.
  • World Weather Inc. notes net drying in southern and east-central Argentina will need to be closely monitored during the next couple of weeks, although the absence of hot temps will help conserve subsoil moisture for a while. Brazil’s production areas will stay favorably moist throughout the next two weeks.
  • Global edible oil markets continued to fall amid expectations of a coming record Brazilian soybean crop and U.S. plans to allow E15 sales year-round, which has raised worries over demand for soyoil.
  • January soybean futures have extended to a fresh contract low with next support at $9.53 1/2. Initial resistance stands at Tuesday’s low at $9.70 1/2.

Wheat futures are mostly a penny to 3 cents firmer.

  • Wheat futures are favoring the upside, though technical resistance and U.S. dollar strength continue to curb buyer interest.
  • France’s ag ministry cut its forecast for 2024-25 French wheat exports outside the EU by 400,000 MT to 3.5 MMT, down 66% from last year. It raised wheat exports within the bloc by 260,000 MT to 6.16 MMT, still 2% below year-ago.
  • U.S. wheat is favorably established and mostly dormant or semi-dormant, though unusually warm weather next week will reduce winter hardiness for many winter crops, according to World Weather.
  • March SRW futures continue to face resistance at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, which have converged at $5.55 1/2, while initial support lies at $5.40 3/4 and is backed by the Dec. 4 low of $5.40 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are weaker at midsession.

  • Nearby live cattle are weaker amid continued selling from the recent high, though technical support is limiting the downside.
  • Cash cattle trade took place in Iowa/Minnesota early this week around $1.00 higher than last week’s average for the area. Active trade is likely to be pushed late into the week, per usual when there is a Cattle on Feed Report.
  • After three days of price gains, wholesale beef values weakened on Tuesday with Choice down $1.74 to $315.63 and Select $1.07 lower to $288.50. Despite the lower prices, movement slowed to 112 loads, signaling retailers have completed purchases for holiday features.
  • February live cattle are testing support at the 10-day moving average of $189.21, which is backed by the 20-day of $188.68. Initial resistance stands at $190.48.

Hog futures are mostly firmer at midmorning.

  • Hog futures are mostly firmer amid support from the cash index.
  • The CME lean hog index is up 14 cents to $83.98 as of Dec. 16. The index is only 65 cents off its recent low but has risen in three of the last five days, hinting that a seasonal bottom may be in the works.imported 2.09 MMT of pork, down 17.4% from the same period last year.
  • The pork cutout value slid 50 cents to $94.77 amid losses in all cuts aside from primal bellies and picnics. Movement totaled 301.2 loads for the day.
  • China imported 180,000 MT of pork in November, double the amount it brought in during the previous month but still 3.4% less than last year. Through the first 11 months of this year, China
  • February lean hogs are trading within Tuesday’s lower range, limited by resistance at $84.15, while initial support remains at this week’s low of $82.675.