Market Snapshot | December 13, 2024

The grain and soy complex is undergoing modest selling pressure alongside the livestock markets.

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Pro Farmer’s Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are a penny to 2 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are modestly lower in a continuation of yesterday’s selling pressure.
  • Corn planting is on hold in parts of Cordoba, Argentina’s top corn producing province, due to a lack of rain, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said.
  • China’s total grain production reached a record of 706.5 MMT this year, the National Bureau of Statistics said, up 1.6% from last year. The corn crop was a record 294.92 MMT, up 2.1% from last year, boosted by larger plantings and increased yields.
  • March corn futures have traded in a tight range so far today. Resistance stands at $4.44 1/4 then $4.47 3/4, while support lies at the 10-day moving average around $4.40 3/4.

Soybeans are 7 to 8 cents lower at midmorning, while soymeal futures are around $2.00 lower. Soyoil is about 25 points lower.

  • Soybean futures are trading lower and nearer this week’s lows but continue to maintain the modest uptrend from the November low.
  • USDA reported daily soybean sales of 200,000 MT to unknown destinations for 2024-25.
  • Industry group Abiove increased its 2025 Brazilian soybean production estimate to 168.7 MMT, up 1 MMT from the previous forecast.
  • The U.S. agriculture industry has started talks with Donald Trump’s transition team in a bid to advocate for the sector as the president-elect pledges tariffs. One possible solution being touted by industry groups is convincing China to stick to the $50 billion a year in ag purchases it pledged during the Phase One deal.
  • January soybean futures’ range continues to tighten on the daily bar chart. The psychological $10.00 mark continues to serve as resistance, while prices have been supported by stout uptrend support around $9.86 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are 4 to 6 cents lower, while HRS contracts are mostly a penny to 2 cents lower.

  • Winter wheat futures continue to face persistent selling pressure following Wednesday’s short-term top.
  • Ukraine’s grain production is a little bigger than previously expected, though exports are expected to fall. Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval said the exportable surplus would be 16.2 MMT of wheat, below USDA’s forecast of 16.5 MMT and down from 18.6 MMT last year.
  • The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA) raised its estimate for wheat production in the state, saying yields from the ongoing harvest continued to exceed expectations. Western Australia is now on track to produce 10.0 MMT of wheat, GIWA said in its monthly crop report, up 495,000 MT from its prior forecast.
  • March SRW futures are finding support at the $5.50 mark, which is backed by $5.47 1/4. Resistance lies at the 10-day moving average at $5.57 1/4.

Live cattle futures are mildly firmer while feeders are moderately lower at midmorning.

  • Feeders turned lower after reports Mexican cattle imports could restart soon.
  • Live cattle are supported by this week’s strength in the cash market.
  • Cash cattle trade picked up mid-week, indicating another $1.00 to $2.00 rise in the weekly cash cattle average is likely, lending support to futures.
  • Choice cutout surged $4.01 to $315.24 Thursday, while Select rose $2.37 to $280.48. That is the highest quote for Choice beef in over a month.
  • Packer margins remain deep in the red despite recent strength in the beef market, which has traders wary of continued strength in the cash cattle market.
  • February live cattle have rebounded after opening lower. Initial resistance stems from $191.50, which is backed by yesterday’s high of $192.70. Support comes in at $190.325 on a reversal lower.

Hog futures are mixed at midmorning.

  • February hog futures continue to see limited volatility as prices base near recent support.
  • The CME lean hog index is up 30 cents to $83.91 as of Dec. 11, the second consecutive daily gain. That strength has supported December futures, which go off the board at noon today.
  • Pork cutout fell another 56 cents to $92.31 Thursday, led lower by a $9.39 plunge in bellies. Movement dropped to 227.64 loads, which is concerning for near-term pork prices.
  • February lean hogs are consolidating near the 40-day moving average at $84.40. Additional weakness would find support at $83.75, while bulls are looking to overcome psychological $85.00 resistance.