Corn futures are unchanged to fractionally higher at midmorning.
- Corn futures are trading in a tight range ahead of today’s USDA reports.
- Traders are anticipating a 32-million-bu. cut to 2024-25 corn ending stocks based on an anticipated bump to use in the Supply and Demand Report.
- China cut its 2024 corn crop by 3.17 MMT to 293.84 MMT, though that was still up 5 MMT from last year.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian and Argentine corn production forecasts at 125 MT and 48 MMT, respectively. He holds a neutral to higher bias toward Brazil’s crop.
- March corn futures are facing resistance at the mid-November high of $4.42 1/4. Additional resistance is at $4.47 3/4. Support stems from $4.40 then the 100-day moving average at $4.36 1/2.
Soybeans are 3 to 4 cents higher at midmorning, while soymeal futures are around $1.50 higher. Soyoil is around 15 points lower.
- Soybean futures extended overnight gains and are trading solidly higher ahead of today’s USDA reports.
- China imported 7.15 MMT of soybeans in November, down 940,000 MT (11.6%) from the previous month and 770,000 MT (9.7%) less than last year.
- China’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a 7.5% decline in soybean imports for 2024-25 amidst abundant supplies and an anticipated bump in domestic production.
- Cordonnier left his soybean production forecasts at 170 MMT and 57 MMT for Brazil and Argentina, respectively.
- January soybean futures are testing resistance at the psychological $10.00 mark. Bulls are looking to hold support at the 10-day moving average at $9.91 3/4 on a reversal lower.
SRW and HRS wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher, while HRW futures are mixed.
- Winter wheat futures are modestly higher after seeing relative weakness in the overnight session.
- Minimal changes are expected for the wheat balance sheet in today’s reports, with analysts expecting just a 1-million-bu. decrease to 814 million bu. for U.S. ending stocks.
- Traders will keep a close eye on any changes to production estimates in Russia as 37.2% of the country’s crop is in poor condition, the lowest rating in decades.
- March SRW futures are trading mostly within the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $5.61 1/4 and $5.56 1/2, with additional resistance/support at $5.64 3/4 and $5.50.
Live cattle futures and feeders are posting moderate to strong gains at midmorning.
- Nearby live cattle are actively extending Monday’s gains, supported by discounts to the cash market.
- While beef prices have climbed recently, packer margins remain deep in the red, limiting packer willingness to continue to pay up for cattle supplies in the near future.
- Wholesale beef continues to show strength as Choice cutout firmed another $2.10 to $314.14 Monday, while Select climbed $2.61 to $279.34.
- February live cattle have negated much of last week’s drop and are testing resistance at $188.50. Support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $187.55.
Hog futures are lower at midmorning aside from the nearby December contract.
- February hog futures struggled to maintain this morning’s higher open and are now weaker.
- The CME lean hog index is down another 27 cents to $83.46 as of Dec. 6, extending the seasonal slide.
- Pork cutout climbed $2.47 to $83.46 Monday, led by more than $7 gains in both ribs and hams.
- China imported 581,000 MT of meat in November, up 46,000 MT (8.6%) from the previous month and 24,000 MT (4.3%) more than last year. Through the first 11 months of this year, China imported 6.06 MMT of meat, down 11.2% from the same period last year.
- February lean hogs are extending lower following yesterday’s weakness and are near the lower end of the recent range. Support stems from $83.375 while bulls are looking to reclaim initial resistance at $86.50.