Market Snapshot | Corrective gains expand

March 6, 2025

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | March 6, 2025
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are mostly 7 to 8 cents higher at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are extending Wednesday’s corrective gains as tariff negotiations continue.
  • President Donald Trump is considering exempting certain agricultural products from tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico, with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins telling Bloomberg “everything is on the table.”
  • USDA reported corn export sales of 909,100 MT for the week ended Feb. 27, up 15% from the previous week but down 32% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the upper end of the pre-report range of expectations from 700,000 MT to 1.0 MMT. Exports totaled 1.27 MMT for the week.
  • Mexico’s Senate approved the constitutional reform banning cultivation of genetically modified (GM) corn on Wednesday, a week after the lower House approved the measure. The reform must now be approved by the local legislature of at least 17 of the country’s 32 states.
  • May corn futures have extended back above the 100-day moving average of $4.63 1/2, with resistance now at $4.66 3/4. Initial support lies around $4.50.

Soybeans are around 8 to 13 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around $5.00 higher. Soyoil is about 10 points higher.

  • Soybean futures are posting strong gains, with soymeal providing spillover support.
  • USDA reported soybean export sales of 352,900 MT for the week ended Feb. 27, down 14% from the previous week and unchanged from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low-end of the pre-report expectations from 300,000 to 550,000 MT. Exports totaled 792,800 MT for the week.
  • USDA reported daily soyoil sales of 20,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2024-25.
  • World Weather notes Argentina will see its rainy pattern in the southwest come to an end this weekend, which will be welcome for most key production areas after recently trending a little too wet. However, wetter biased conditions are expected to return in the second half of the month.
  • May soybean futures have moved above resistance at $10.19 1/4 and are approaching the 100- and 10-day moving averages, each trading around $10.30. Initial support lies at $10.08 1/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 5 to 7 cents higher, while HRS futures are mostly 4 to 5 cents higher.

  • SRW wheat futures are notching a second straight day of short-covering strength amid continued U.S. dollar weakness.
  • USDA reported wheat export sales of 338,700 MT for the week ended Feb. 27, up 26% from the previous week but down 25% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 225,000 to 450,000 MT. Export totaled 380,300 MT for the week.
  • China is expecting to produce another bumper wheat crop this year due to favorable weather, a COFCO International executive said, with rising domestic supplies likely to reduce the need for imports.
  • India’s wheat production is expected to be little changed from year-ago at 106 MMT, according to the median of seven estimates in a Bloomberg survey of wheat processors. This is slightly lower than the 110 MMT projected by the Rollers Flour Millers’ Federation of India.
  • May SRW futures have moved above resistance at $5.53 3/4, with additional resistance at $5.59 1/2. Support lies at $5.45 1/2.

Live cattle are posting moderate losses while feeders are facing heftier selling.

  • Nearby live cattle are weaker amid wholesale pressure and a pullback from gains the past two days.
  • Wholesale beef values slipped on Wednesday with Choice down $1.33 to $313.54 and Select down $1.49 to $302.53. Movement increased to 173 loads.
  • USDA reported net beef sales of 13,400 for 2025, down 27% from the previous week and 31% from the four-week average.
  • Brazil is negotiating with Japan to restart beef exports after a ban in 2012 due to Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE). According to Southern Ag Today (link), despite Brazil’s previous negligible market share, its return could disrupt U.S. beef exports to Japan, a vital market where U.S. beef currently leads with 43% of total imports.
  • April live cattle are facing resistance at Wednesday’s close of $196.55, while support lies at the 20- and 10-day moving averages of $195.49 and $194.54.

Hog futures are marking strong gains at midmorning.

  • Nearby lean hogs are being supported by technical buying and strong weekly export sales.
  • USDA reported net pork sales of 42,400 MT for 2025, up 32% from the previous week and 27% from the four-week average.
  • The CME lean hog index is down 2 cents to $90.20 as of March 4.
  • The pork cutout fell $1.29 to $96.48 on Wednesday, continuing the recent choppy price trend. Since mid-February, cutout has chopped broadly within a range from $94.03 to $102.47, with big swings in primal bellies largely driving the volatility.
  • April lean hogs have extended above the 10-day moving average and is now facing resistance at $86.75. Support lies at $83.28.