Corn futures are fractionally lower at midmorning.
· Corn futures are extending losses for the fourth straight session, falling to contract lows despite supportive outside markets.
· Traders are showing no urgency to cover short positions ahead of USDA’s August crop reports on Monday, which will feature the first survey-based corn crop estimate. USDA is expected to estimate a record corn yield. Click here to see analysts’ pre-report expectations.
· Rain will resume in the eastern U.S. Midwest next week after recent drying, and will bode well for summer crops, according to World Weather Inc.
· December corn futures have extended to a contract low at $3.94. Support is at $3.91 1/2. Initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $4.02 1/2.
Soybeans are mostly unchanged to a penny higher, while soymeal futures are mostly around $3.00 lower. Soyoil is modestly firmer in most contracts.
· Soybeans are modestly firmer despite continued selling in meal futures, as export demand stimulated mild short-covering.
· USDA reported daily soybean sales of 132,000 MT to China for 2024-25 and 212,000 MT to unknown destinations — 50,000 MT for 2023-24 and 162,000 MT for 2024-25. USDA also reported 100,000 MT of soymeal sales to Colombia — 12,000 MT for 2023-24 and 88,000 MT for 2024-25.
· A pair of Argentine oilseed industry unions announced a one-day extension to an ongoing strike that has halted operations at the country’s major ag export hubs. Today is the fourth day of inactivity by the oilseed workers, who are seeking better wages. The number of grain ships facing loading delays due to the strike had risen to 36 by midday Thursday.
· November soybeans rebounded from earlier lows, with support at Thursday’s low of $10.07, while initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average near $10.23.
Wheat futures are mostly 4 to 7 cents higher.
· Wheat futures are higher on global production concerns and dollar weakness.
· France’s ag ministry slashed its estimate of the country’s wheat crop by 3.33 MMT to 26.32 MMT, which would be the smallest crop since 1986. However, that’s above estimates from private firms Strategie Grains and Argus Media, which were cut to 25.6 MMT and 25.17 MMT, respectively, earlier this week.
· SovEcon cut its Russian wheat crop estimate by 1.8 MMT to 82.9 MMT.
· Consultancy IKAR raised its Russian wheat crop forecast by 600,000 MT to 83.8 MMT, with total grain production now expected to reach 129.5 MMT. IKAR raised its 2024-25 export forecast for the country to 44.5 MMT, up 500,000 MT from its prior outlook. Total grain exports are expected to total 56.2 MMT.
· December SRW wheat reached the highest intraday level since July 24, though buyer interest faced above $5.73 1/2. The 10-day moving average of $5.59 1/2 continues to provide initial support.
Live cattle and feeders are moderately to sharply higher at midmorning.
· Cattle futures are higher amid corrective buying after sharp losses earlier this week.
· Support is also coming from big discounts to the cash market, as it appears this week’s cash trade will decline just modestly.
· Wholesale beef prices continued lower on Thursday, with Choice dropping $1.73 to $312.12, while Select fell 80 cents to $298.03, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $14.09. Movement totaled 124 loads.
· October live cattle continue to find support at $177.12, which is backed by last week’s low of $176.20. Resistance at $179.32 is being tested.
Hog futures are mixed at midsession.
· August hog futures are favoring the downside despite the contract’s discount to the cash index.
· The CME lean hog index is down another 30 cents to $92.80 as of Aug. 7, the fourth straight daily decline, prompting increased thoughts the index posted a seasonal top at $93.64.
· The pork cutout value fell 73 cents on Thursday to $98.23. That’s down from what appears to be the seasonal peak of $106.78 on July 29 and the lowest level since July 11.
· October lean hogs are facing resistance at $74.22, while initial support lies at $72.69.