Corn futures are unchanged to a penny higher at midmorning.
· Corn futures have rebounded from overnight lows to mark gains for a third straight session.
· U.S. drying will continue for another week and possibly 10 days from the Delta into Illinois, southern Indiana and Kentucky as well as part of eastern Missouri, while rain will periodically fall across the Central Plains, Northern Plains and upper Midwest, according to World Weather Inc.
· Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield 0.5 bu. per acre to 182 bu. per acre, which pushed his production estimate to 15.02 billion bushels.
· USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop slipped 0.2 points to 374.6, well above year-ago.
· December corn futures are challenging the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each trading around $4.08, while initial support lies at $4.00, and is backed by last week’s low of $3.95.
Soybeans are mostly 11 cents lower, while soymeal futures are mostly $1.00 to $2.50 lower. Soyoil is around 65 to 70 points lower.
· Soybeans are lower in consolidative trade, with selling in soymeal and soyoil pressuring prices.
· Cordonnier raised his soybean yield forecast 0.5 bu. per acre to 52.5 bu. per acre, noting August started without any widespread problems and beneficial weather. That pushed his production estimate to 4.42 billion bushels.
· USDA rated the soybean crop as 68% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On our weighted CCI, the soybean crop improved 2.2 points to 368.5.
· Area planted to soybeans in Brazil will increase at a slower rate for 2024-25 than previous years as prices are near a four-year low, the president of farmers group Aprosoja Brasil said. Brazil soybean plantings rose 4.5% to 46 million hectares in 2023-24 after a 6% jump in 2022-23. “I don’t know if it (soybean expansion in 2024-25) will reach 1%,” the official said.
· Two unions of soybean oil factory workers in Argentina announced a strike over wages on Tuesday, halting activity in one of the world’s largest exporting hubs for processed soybeans.
· November soybeans face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $10.37 1/4, while initial support lies at $10.23 1/2 and is backed by last week’s low of $10.13.
Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 6 cents higher, with SRW leading gains.
· Wheat futures are extending recent gains despite U.S. dollar strength.
· USDA rated 74% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” unchanged from a week ago, while 97% of the crop was headed. On the CCI, spring wheat dropped 1.9 points to 380.8, though that was still 59.1 points (18.4%) above last year at this time.
· The spring wheat harvest was estimated to be 6% complete as of Sunday, slightly behind the five-year average of 10%, while the winter wheat crop was 88% harvested.
· December SRW wheat futures are challenging resistance at $5.70 1/2, while initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $5.58 1/2, then at $5.50 1/4.
Live cattle are mostly mixed at midsession, while feeders are modestly lower.
· Cattle futures are mostly firmer, though buyers remain cautious amid looming recessionary fears.
· Heavy long liquidation in live cattle futures, including Monday’s fear-driven plunge, swung the market from overbought to short-term oversold in just six trading sessions.
· Wholesale beef prices firmed on Monday, with Choice rising $4.17 to $317.94, while Select increased $2.89 to $300.06. Movement totaled 93 loads for the day.
· October live cattle are trading within Monday’s wide range, with initial resistance at the previous session high of $180.50, which is backed by the 200- and 100-day moving averages of $180.88 and $181.47. Initial support lies at $178.57, then at $176.63.
Hog futures are modestly favoring the upside at midsession.
· August hog futures are modestly weaker amid a slight erosion of cash and wholesale fundamentals, combined with technical pressure.
· The CME lean hog index is down a nickel to $93.59 as of Aug. 2, ending a 15-day string of gains.
· The pork cutout value declined a modest 3 cents on Monday to $104.28, with gains in other cuts offsetting a near $3-dollar decline in primal hams. Movement totaled 277.4 loads.
· October lean hogs are trading between the 10- and 40-day moving averages of $76.42 and $74.89.