Market Snapshot | August 29, 2024

Soybeans have shown relative strength throughout today’s session, leading corn and wheat higher.

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Pro Farmer’s Market Snapshot
(Pro Farmer)

Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher midsession.

  • Corn futures saw strength on this morning’s open amid light corrective buying.
  • USDA reported weekly corn sales of 15,300 MT for 2023-24 – a marketing-year low. Net sales totaled 1.494 MMT for 2024-25, which were above expectations. Increases for new-crop came primarily for Mexico, unknown destinations and Japan. Traders expected sales from -100,000 to 200,000 MT for 2023-24 and 700,000 MT to 1.4 MMT for 2024-25. Exports totaled 1.049 MMT.
  • USDA reported daily sorghum sales of 118,000 MT to China for 2024-25. Earlier this week, Beijing requested imports buy less foreign sorghum and barley as ample supplies and weaker-than-expected demand weigh on domestic grain prices.
  • Ukraine continues to ship grain at a rapid pace, exceeding last year’s pace. Ukraine’s grain exports through the first two months of 2024-25 totaled 6.75 MMT, up 2.15 MMT (62.3%) from the same period last year, according to ag ministry data. Shipments included 3.4 MMT of wheat, 2.2 MMT of corn and 1.1 MMT of barley.
  • December corn futures continue to be limited by 10-day moving average resistance at $3.93 1/2. Support is at yesterday’s low of $3.88 3/4.

Soybeans are trading 6 to 8 cents lower, and soymeal futures are mostly around $2.00 higher. Soyoil is 85 to 100 points higher.

  • Soybeans are trading near this week’s highs as soyoil continues to lead the way higher.
  • USDA reported weekly soybean sales reductions of 143,600 MT for 2023-24. Net sales totaled 2.616 MMT for 2024-25. Increases for new-crop came primarily for China and unknown destinations. Sales were within expectations from -150,000 to 150,000 MT for 2023-24 and above expectations of 1.5 to 2.5 MMT for 2024-25. Exports totaled 542,300 MT.
  • Crush margins continue to improve, incentivizing crushers to operate at capacity. Strength in soyoil has led September crush, calculated using a mix of soybean, meal and soyoil futures, to contract highs.
  • November soybeans are testing downtrend resistance stemming from the late-May highs at $9.89. The 10-day moving average at $9.81 is initial support.

SRW wheat futures are trading near unchanged with a modest downside bias, HRW is 2 to 6 cents lower and HRS futures are fractionally higher.

  • SRW wheat futures recovered from overnight weakness and are trading near unchanged, supported by strong export sales.
  • USDA reported weekly wheat export sales of 532,100 MT for 2024-25, up 8% from the previous week and 53% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for the Philippines, South Korea and Guatemala. Sales were within expectations of 300,000 to 650,000 MT for 2024-25. Exports totaled 576,800 MT.
  • French soft wheat exports outside the European Union are expected to fall to 4.1 MMT in 2024-25, down 60% from last year, Argus Media forecast.
  • December SRW wheat bounced from $5.35 support and are trading near resistance at $5.43 3/4, with additional resistance at the 20-day moving average at $5.48 1/2.

Live cattle and feeder futures are mostly lower at midsession.

  • Cattle futures opened lower this morning as traders await direction from the cash market.
  • Cash cattle trade has had an expectedly slow start to the week, with very little cash cattle trade taking place. Lack of trade in the cash market has led to indecisive trade in futures.
  • Choice cutout fell $4.68 to $307.29 on Wednesday, the lowest level since mid-May. Select dropped $2.62 to $297.63. That tightened the Choice/Select spread to $9.66, well below year-ago and the average for this time of year.
  • Net beef sales of 17,200 MT for 2024 were up 8% from the previous week, but down 4% from the prior 4-week average.
  • October live cattle futures have been largely supported by 10-day moving average at $178.075. Bulls are seeking to overcome resistance at $179.15.

Hog futures are modestly higher at midsession.

  • October hog futures have traded on either side of unchanged in choppy trade, though they are currently favoring the upside.
  • Pork cutout fell 77 cents to $95.28 Wednesday, led lower by losses in bellies and butts.
  • After relative strength earlier this week, the CME lean hog index fell 37 cents to $87.45 as of Aug. 27. Traders seem to anticipate relative strength in hogs in September, which is not uncommon historically.
  • Net pork sales of 42,200 MT for 2024 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 59% from the prior 4-week average.
  • October lean hogs are continuing to base below resistance at $82.475, this week’s high. Support is at Monday’s high of $81.45.