Note: Pro Farmer’s U.S. corn and soybean crop estimates will be released today at 1:30 p.m. CT.
Corn futures are mostly unchanged to a penny lower at midmorning.
· Corn futures are modestly favoring the downside, in tandem with SRW wheat despite notable outside market support.
· Scouts on day 4 of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour on Thursday calculated an average corn yield of 192.79 bu. per acre in Iowa, up from 182.80 bu. per acre last year and from the three-year average of 185.79 bu. per acre. For Minnesota, the Tour found an average corn yield of 164.9 bu. per acre, down from 181.34 bu. per acre last year and the three-year average of 183.06 bu. per acre.
· Net drying is likely across the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states over the next five to six days, despite a few infrequent showers and thunderstorms, notes World Weather Inc. Crop conditions should stay mostly good, except in the drier pockets of Ohio, West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, Pennsylvania, southern Illinois and Delta where some greater rain will be needed soon.
· December corn futures are facing support at $3.91 1/4, while initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $3.97 1/4.
Soybeans are mostly 10 to 11 cents higher, while soymeal futures are around 40 cents lower. Soyoil is about 120 points higher.
· Soybean gains are being underpinned by soyoil strength, though technical resistance continues to crimp heavier buying interest.
· USDA reported daily sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations during 2024-25.
· Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1,312.31 for Iowa, up from 1,190.41 last year and the three-year Tour average of 1,194.21. Soybean pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1.036.59 in Minnesota, down from last 984.39 year and the three-year average of 1,037.70.
· November soybeans continue to be limited by the 10-day moving average of $9.71, which is backed by the 20-day moving average of $9.96 1/2. Initial support lies at Thursday’s low of $9.60 1/4.
Winter wheat futures are mostly 3 to 6 cents lower, while HRS futures are around 4 to 9 cents lower.
· Wheat futures are lower for the third straight session despite a weaker U.S. dollar.
· Canada’s federal government ordered its two largest railways to enter binding arbitration with its workers’ union, swiftly ending a shutdown that business groups warned would have “devastating” economic consequences across North America. This decision was made after it became clear that negotiations were unlikely to succeed without intervention.
· Too much rain may be threatening spring cereals in northeastern China and parts of eastern Russia’s New Lands. Dry and warmer weather is needed in each of these areas to protect grain quality. A frequent succession of weather disturbances will continue to inflict moisture upon the eastern Russia New Lands for an extended period of time, according to World Weather.
· December SRW wheat futures are trading within Thursday’s lower range, with support serving at the previous session low of $5.26 1/4, while initial resistance stands at $5.46 3/4.
Live cattle are moderately firmer, while feeders are marking heftier gains.
· Cattle futures are modestly firmer as traders anticipate this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed Report.
· USDA will release its Cattle on Feed Report at 2:00 pm CT this afternoon.
· Traders continue to anticipate cash market weakness into the fall despite relative strength in October last year.
· Wholesale beef values rose on Thursday, with Choice up 78 cents to $315.99, while Select rose 95 cents to $302.03. Movement totaled 1225 loads for the day.
· October live cattle are trading within Thursday’s upper range, limited by resistance at the previous session high of $176.825, and is backed by $177.10. Meanwhile, initial support lies at $175.625.
Hog futures are firmer at midsession.
· October hog futures are extending Thursday’s strong gains, with an assist from firming wholesale values.
· The CME lean hog index is down 38 cents to $88.83 as of Aug. 21.
· The pork cutout value rose $1.88 on Thursday to $96.43, while movement totaled 305.1 loads for the day.
· October lean hogs have moved above the 100-day moving average, currently trading at $79.71, with initial support serving at Thursday’s close of $79.625.