Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents lower at midmorning.
· Corn futures are taking back most of Monday’s gains, with heavy selling in soybean futures weighing on the market.
· USDA reported daily corn sales of 137,160 MT to Mexico for 2024-25.
· Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield by 1.5 bu. to 183.5 bu. per acre noting generally favorable conditions and no threatening weather forecast. Cordonnier has adopted USDA’s new harvested acreage estimate of 82.71 million acres, which pushed his corn production forecast to 15.17 billion bushels.
· After analyzing the FSA acreage data released on Monday, USDA’s total U.S. planted acres match very well with past years’ August data compared to final planted acres. There may be some individual states that could see adjustments, but we are comfortable using USDA’s acreage figures for corn.
· USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as “good” to “excellent” and 10% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop dropped 0.9 points to 373.7.
· December corn futures failed to build on Monday’s key bullish reversal and are trading within yesterday’s range. Resistance remains at the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $4.01 1/4 and $4.06 3/4, while initial support lies at $3.93 1/2.
Soybeans are mostly 20 cents lower, while soymeal futures are mostly $3.00-plus lower. Soyoil is mostly 80 to 90 points weaker.
· Soybeans are extending lower for the sixth straight session amid active followthrough selling.
· USDA reported daily soybean sales of 132,000 MT to China for 2024-25.
· Cordonnier raised his soybean yield estimate by 1 bu. to 53.5 bu. per acre. At USDA’s harvested acreage figure of 86.27 million acres, his soybean production estimate is now 4.61 billion bushels.
· USDA rated the soybean crop as 68% “good” to “excellent” and 8% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop slipped 0.7 point to 367.8.
· November soybeans posted a contract low of $9.64. Resistance starts at Monday’s low of $9.75 1/2.
Winter wheat futures are 4 to 9 cents lower, while HRS futures are around 3 to 5 cents lower.
· Wheat futures continue to trade mostly sideways in consolidative trade but are favoring the downside today despite U.S. dollar weakness.
· USDA rated 72% of the spring wheat crop as “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat crop improved 1.2 points to 381.9, despite the overall ratings decline, as improvement in top producer North Dakota offset declines in some of the other states.
· Egypt purchased 280,000 MT of wheat from its tender for 3.8 MMT – 180,000 MT of Ukrainian and 100,000 MT of Bulgarian wheat.
· Dryness continues from eastern Ukraine through Russia’s Southern Region to western Kazakhstan.
· December SRW wheat futures are pivoting around Monday’s low of $5.52, with initial support at $5.51 1/4. Initial resistance stands at the 10- and 20-day moving averages, each currently trading around $5.61.
Live cattle are posting slight gains while feeders are slightly to moderately higher at midmorning.
· Cattle futures are extending higher with the steep discount to cash prices providing support, though contracts are well off their earlier highs.
· Cash cattle averaged $191.34 last week, down $3.11 from the previous week and the lowest price since the first week of June.
· Wholesale beef prices firmed $3.12 for Choice to $315.83 and $1.58 for Select to $300.17 on Monday. Falling cash prices and rising wholesale values will improve packer margins, though they remain solidly in the red.
· October live cattle are trading within Monday’s range, limited by the previous session high of $181.35, while initial support lies at the previous session low of $179.42.
Hog futures are sharply lower in most contracts at midsession.
· August hog futures are modestly lower amid technical selling and extended losses in the cash index. Deferred futures are facing heavy selling pressure.
· The CME lean hog index is down 98 cents to $90.92 as of Aug. 9, extending the recent decline to six straight days during which price drops have accelerated each day.
· The pork cutout value rose $1.61 to $100.27, led higher by primal bellies, loins and butts. Movement totaled 311.7 loads for the day.
· October lean hogs have marked the lowest intraday level since July 16, with support at $72.31, while initial resistance stands at the 40-day moving average of $74.54.