Hogs
Price action: Hog futures proved weak Thursday, with expiring April futures skidding7.5 cents to $87.375, while most-active June futures fell 97.5 cents to $95.55.
Fundamental analysis: The trade situation in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” was extremely unsettled, with commodity traders clearly concerned other nations will impose or increase their own tariffs on U.S. ag products. And since about 25% of domestic pork production is exported and the pork is of relatively high value, the hog and pork complex seemingly makes a good target for retaliation.
On the other hand, ongoing events in the cash hog and wholesale pork markets aren’t encouraging bulls either. After edging up the past two days, with the hog index for Monday is now officially stated at $88.65 and is expected to reach $88.80 when Tuesday’s quote is published tomorrow. Yesterday’s USDA data implies the Wednesday quote will slip 8 cents to $88.72. The widely anticipated seasonal surge in hog prices clearly isn’t happening yet. Meanwhile, the latest pork data is discouraging. Pork cutout had surged to $98.75 last Friday morning but has fallen steadily since then. It dipped 13 cents to $93.57 at midsession today. Until pork prices turn solidly higher, bulls probably can’t count on a sustained advance in cash and/or futures values. They can take some consolation from ideas that grocers are wholly preoccupied with planned Easter Features for mid-April, but that seemingly cuts little ice at the moment.
Technical analysis: Today’s price action ending with a low-range close again improved the short-term technical advantage in June hog futures held by bearish traders. The daily low placed tentative support at $94.975, which essentially marked psychological support at the $95.00 level. A follow-through drop would have bears targeting Monday’s low of $93.70, then the March 4 low at $92.00. Today’s high of $97.55 confirmed growing resistance above the market, although the contract’s 10- and 20-day moving averages mark tentative resistance at $96.22 and $96.90, respectively. A breakout to the upside would have bulls targeting the 40-day moving average near $98.78, then the psychological $100.00 level.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through April. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle fell $2.70 to $204.70, closing near mid-range. May feeder cattle tumbled $4.80 to $283.125, marking a low-range close.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets today fell victim to a keen risk-off trading day in the general marketplace that saw the U.S. stock indexes plummet and hit multi-month lows. If the stock market continues to sell off, more buyers in live and feeder cattle futures markets will likely move to the sidelines. Profit-taking pressure was also featured in live and feeder cattle futures, after June live cattle hit a contract high on Wednesday and May feeders remain not far below their recent record highs.
President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Australian beef exports. Australian farmers, traders and industry groups said they would pass on any extra costs from tariffs to American consumers, potentially pushing up the prices of hamburgers and low-quality cuts of beef. However, given that little of their beef is grain-fed, it seldom competes directly with American-grown cuts such as steaks in particular.
Cash and beef market fundamentals remain solid. Light cash cattle trading has occurred so far this week. Around 400 head of steers and heifers changed hands at $210.00 in Texas Wednesday. Dressed steers saw 144 carcasses sell for $341.25, according to USDA. Feedlots continue to hold out for higher prices, while packers are in no hurry amid cutting margins presently in the red. The noon report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef value up 43 cents to $340.33. Select grade lost 2 cents to $318.81. The Choice-Select spread is presently $21.52. Movement at midday was 51 loads. Choice-grade values at around $340.00 imply still-strong consumer demand for beef.
USDA reported weekly U.S. beef export sales of 9,300 for 2025, up 16% from the previous week but down 19% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above resistance at $210.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $199.60. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $206.30 and then at the contract high of $207.725. First support is seen at today’s low of $203.70 and then at this week’s low of $202.55.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close May futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $290.625. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $280.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $286.05 and then at this week’s high of $288.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $282.25 and then at $280.70.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through April. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.