Hogs
Price action: Hog futures traded generally higher Thursday. Expiring February futures settled unchanged at $86.65, while most-active April gained 20 cents to $91.75.
Fundamental analysis: The hog and pork complex remained seasonally strong Thursday. The CME officially stated the hog index for Monday at $84.08, with Tuesday’s preliminary figure at $84.60, up 52 cents. Wednesday’s USDA data put that day’s likely figure at $85.05, up another 45 cents. History suggests the rally will continue seasonally through at least next week, although sustained strength through the end of the month wouldn’t be at all unusual. Indeed, with late-January hog slaughter falling so far below last year, averaging 6.4% under year-ago during the last two weeks of the month, the rally might easily continue into the March-April period.
Pork demand also seems robust. Although cutout slipped 93 cents Wednesday, it rebounded $1.26 to $95.08 at midsession today. Most cuts posted significant gains, with the exception being moderate losses in ribs and picnics. We believe grocers are taking their time in building ham stockpiles for planned Easter features, since the holiday doesn’t arrive until April 20 this year. This gives them time to build inventories. On the other hand, sustained ham demand might limit potential late winter/early spring weakness.
Technical analysis: Bulls own the short-term technical advantage in April hog futures, especially after bears proved unable to mount a challenge of solid support at the contract’s 10-day moving average near $90.20 and the psychological $90.00 level. Today’s low established initial support at $90.575. Conversely, a drop through those support levels would have bears quickly targeting 40-day moving average support near $88.72. Today’s high put initial resistance at $92.20. That’s backed by last week’s top at $92.75, then by the Dec. 3 high at $93.60. A move above that point would open the door to a test of the psychological $95.00 level.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through the end of February. You are hand-to-mouth on corn-for-feed needs.
Cattle
Price action: April live cattle fell $4.525 to $196.775, nearer the session low and hit a four-week low. March feeder cattle fell $5.425 to $265.30, nearer the session low and hit a four-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw more heavy profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation from the speculators today as the near-term chart postures for both have significantly deteriorated this week.
Cash cattle and fresh beef fundamentals are also eroding a bit. With packer margins deep in the red this week, packers started with cash cattle bids well below those of a week ago. Cash sources report light cash trade so far late this week at $1 to $3 lower than last week’s average trade. If packers don’t get more aggressive with cash cattle bids today or Friday, then it’s likely this week’s cash trade will be light and packers will pull needs from contracted cattle supplies. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef values mixed, with Choice grade falling $1.89 to $323.45, while Select grade rose 31 cents to $314.64. Movement at midday was decent at 82 loads. The Choice-Select spread is currently $8.81.
Weekly U.S. beef export sales totaled 24,900 MT for 2025, primarily for South Korea (3,900 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Japan (3,300 MT, including decreases of 700 MT) and China (2,500 MT, including decreases of 300 MT). Shipments of 19,800 MT were primarily to South Korea (5,700 MT), Japan (5,000 MT) and China (3,700 MT).
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures markets have suffered near-term chart damage this week to suggest market tops are in place. Nearly three-month-old price uptrends on the daily bar charts have been negated. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close April futures above solid resistance at this week’s high of $201.975. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $192.50. First resistance is seen at $198.00 and then at $200.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $195.85 and then at $195.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close March futures prices above technical resistance at this week’s high of $271.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $260.00. First resistance is seen at $267.00 and then at $269.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $264.075 and then at $263.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You should have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through the end of February. You are hand-to-mouth on corn-for-feed needs.