Hogs
Price action: Delayed tariff action likely spurred fresh buying in hog futures Thursday. Nearby April futures jumped $1.95 to $86.65 at the close.
Fundamental analysis: President Trump announced the delay of some tariffs on Mexican products Thursday and exempted some products such as automobiles. That opened the door to fresh hog futures strength after last week’s tariff news tanked the market. The news seemingly allowed underlying hog and pork complex fundamentals to reassert themselves and power the futures rebound. For example, the latest official quote for the hog index (for Monday) rose 28 cents to $90.22. Tuesday’s preliminary figure slipped two cents to $90.20, while Wednesday’s USDA data implies it will dip another two cents to $90.18 when officially stated in the days ahead. That left the April contract about $3.50 under the latest cash equivalent price.
Pork prices are proving variable, which was best illustrated by Wednesday’s USDA reports. Cutout jumped $2.36 to $100.13 at midsession yesterday, with near across-the-board gains led by a $10.00-plus jump in pork belly values. But the end of the day brought a daily drop of $1.29 to $96.48. This morning’s activity brought another rise of 85 cents to $97.33. We still believe surprisingly tight hog supplies, when compared to the results of the December USDA Hogs & Pigs report, will continue providing underlying support for the hog and pork complex. We also tend to expect firm consumer demand to remain supportive as well.
Technical analysis: Bulls seemingly own the short-term technical advantage at this point, although they face major resistance around the confluence of the April contract’s 20- and 40-day moving averages near $88.80 and $88.95, respectively. Today’s high marked initial resistance at $87.55. Expect stiff psychological resistance at $90.00 as well. Look for initial support at the 10-day moving average near $85.59, along with psychological support at $85.00. Also, expect solid backing in the $84.40 to $83.50 area. A drop below the latter point would have bears again targeting the $80.00 level.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through March. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through April.
Cattle
Price action: April live cattle lost 27 1/2 cents to $195.275 and nearer the daily high. May feeder cattle fell $1.225 to $273.85 and near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets felt some selling pressure from a risk-off trading day in the general marketplace today as the U.S. stock indexes saw sharp losses and are at or near multi-month lows. Uncertainty regarding U.S. trade policy and new tariffs against major trading partners has traders and investors unnerved at present.
Cash cattle action this week has seen light trade in Texas Wednesday at $197.00, with Kansas trade mixed. Lower quality loads sold for $195.00, but high quality traded at $197.00. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef values mixed, with Choice-grade down 21 cents to $313.33 and Select-grade up $3.78 to $306.31. Movement at midday was 63 loads. The Choice-Select spread narrowed to $7.02.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 13,400 for 2025, down 27% from the previous week and 31% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live cattle futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close April futures above solid resistance at $200.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $189.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $197.225 and then at $199.00. First support is seen at $194.00 and then at $193.00.
Feeder bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close May futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $277.225. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the February low of $261.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $275.275 and then at $277.225. First support is seen at $271.00 and then at $270.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through March. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through April.